<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2019 sonunda \u00f6nce d\u0131\u015f ticaret<\/strong> verilerini ald\u0131k: \u00dclkenin \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na sebep olan ithalat kalemi d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130hracat belirli bir \u015fekilde ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n geli\u015fmeye devam ediyordu. Hatta \u00f6yle ki d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi 30 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k ile sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 100 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi rakamlar\u0131ndan, 30 milyar dolara gerileyen bu veriler ekonomi i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilirdi. \u00d6yle de oldu\u2026Buna bir de enerji maliyetlerinin gerilemeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla, enerjinin ithalat i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca ekonomi 2019\u2019da derin bir nefes ald\u0131. Enerjinin toplam ithalat i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 %21,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sonra Turizm<\/strong> g\u00f6stergeleri geldi: 52 milyon turist, 36 milyar dolar turizm geliri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu rakamlar cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusunda \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mal ithalat\u0131ndaki bu dengesizlik, hizmetler dengesindeki bu fazla ile kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f ticaret 30 milyar a\u00e7\u0131k verirken turizmden gelen 36 milyar dolar\u0131n her kuru\u015fu k\u0131ymetlidir. Haliyle ard\u0131ndan cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/span><\/strong> konusunu b\u0131rakt\u0131k, cari fazla<\/span><\/strong>y\u0131 konu\u015fur olduk. Evet T\u00fcrkiye y\u0131llard\u0131r 50 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusu ile yeniden y\u00fcz y\u00fcze gelirse\u2026 Ne olacakt\u0131? B\u00f6yle b\u00f6yle ba\u015flayan felaket senaryolar\u0131 hi\u00e7 bitmek bilmedi. Elbette bunun da sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fc olurdu. Ekonominin bu kadar \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ge\u00e7mi\u015ften bagaj\u0131n\u0131n dolu oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde b\u00f6ylesi ciddi finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesi, bu kadar badire aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7 de kolay de\u011fildi. Ama y\u0131l sonunda, hele ki son \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile g\u00f6rd\u00fck ki veriler lehimize geli\u015fmektedir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00dc\u0130K T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019\u2019da % 0.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2019\u2019un D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki %6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle birlikte son 7 \u00e7eyre\u011fin en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f oldu. Bu g\u00f6stergelerle T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 2019 son \u00e7eyrek verilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci ekonomisi oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi cari fiyatlarla milli gelir 2019’da bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 14.9 artarak 4 trilyon 280 milyar 381 milyon lira olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011findeki % 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme son 7 \u00e7eyre\u011fin en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00f6ylece T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi son \u00e7eyrek verilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen<\/strong> ikinci ekonomisi oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPer\u015fembenin geli\u015fi \u00c7ar\u015fambadan belli\u201d<\/strong><\/em> dedikleri gibi T\u00fcrkiye 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda, finans ve sigorta faaliyetleri olarak toplam katma de\u011feri % 7.4, kamu y\u00f6netimi, e\u011fitim, insan sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sosyal hizmet faaliyetleri % 4.6, di\u011fer hizmet faaliyetleri % 3.7 ve tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc %3.3 artt\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00fc\u015fen faizlerle moral buldu, % 8.6 artt\u0131. Mesleki idari ve destek hizmeti faaliyetleri ise 1,8 azald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na Milli Gelir, 2019\u2019da cari fiyatlarla 51 bin 834 lira: 9 bin 127 dolar oldu. Bu de\u011fer, 2018\u2019de 45 bin 463 lira: 9. 632 dolar olarak hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hep 2018 Bulutlar\u0131 Devam Ediyor <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Burada k\u00f6t\u00fc ge\u00e7en 2018 g\u00f6stergelerinin ard\u0131ndan 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fcmser senaryo belirleyen IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 verilerinin ne kadar yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 ve ger\u00e7eklerden uzak oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 2019 i\u00e7in % -3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fckleri verilere kar\u015f\u0131, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu veriler elbette T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de kredi notu ve CDS \/Risk primi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan riskli \u00fclke olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in maliyetli bir \u00fclke olarak alg\u0131lanmaya sebep olmu\u015f ve bu da uluslararas\u0131 piyasalardan bor\u00e7lan\u0131rken ek faiz y\u00fck\u00fc olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet Sistemi asl\u0131nda beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek bir durum ortaya koyamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle 2018’de Rahip Brunson krizi ile ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7, ekonomiyi ve b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle bir y\u0131l\u0131 h\u0131rpalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2020 \u2019ye gelirken bu badirenin etkileri her ne kadar 2019’da azalm\u0131\u015f olsa da haf\u0131zalarda 2018’in etkileri vard\u0131r. 2020 i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmet ekonominin %5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini hedeflerken, \u00f6b\u00fcr tarafta ince hesaplar beklentileri %3 seviyelerinde tutmaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u015fsizlik de \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak kar\u015f\u0131lar\u0131nda durmaktad\u0131r. Ama 2020 beklentisi i\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Enflasyonun tek haneye inmesi, faizlerin indirilmesi her \u015feyin o kadar kolay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Ekonomide i\u015flerin yoluna girmesiyle, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n geri gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n H\u00fck\u00fcmetin iyimser beklentisi, 2019’da Milli Gelirin %2,9\u2019u kadarl\u0131k bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla kapanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet de 2020 beklentilerini bu y\u00f6nde tutmaktad\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve Avrupa Komisyonunun 2020\u2019ye ait g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri de Milli Gelirin %3,5’i kadar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00fct\u00e7eye Bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00f6zellikle 2018’in en \u00f6nemli etkisi faiz y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131rmas\u0131<\/em><\/strong> olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir. Bu da do\u011frudan b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi \u00fczerinde etkili olmu\u015ftur. \u015e\u00f6yle ki b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Milli Gelire oran\u0131 uzun y\u0131llar %2\u2019nin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 AB kriteri olarak %3\u2019l\u00fck de\u011ferin alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. 2016 sonlar\u0131ndan itibaren ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak ve yaralar\u0131 sarmak ad\u0131na kamu harcamalar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu politika bir dereceye kadar etkili olsa da 2018\u2019de ekonominin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kur ata\u011f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle vergi tahsilat\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunun i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmet, 2019\u2019da b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi yava\u015flatmak ad\u0131na Merkez Bankas\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131na el atmak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2020 yine de umutlar\u0131n aktar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 2019 sonunda \u00f6nce d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini ald\u0131k: \u00dclkenin \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na sebep olan ithalat kalemi d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130hracat belirli bir \u015fekilde ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n geli\u015fmeye devam ediyordu. Hatta \u00f6yle ki d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi 30 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k ile sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 100 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi rakamlar\u0131ndan, 30 milyar dolara gerileyen bu veriler ekonomi i\u00e7in bir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,743,546,533,745,476,205,893,712,111,479,1,166,600,478,243,933,908,747],"tags":[946,948,163,947,949,670],"class_list":["post-10466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akademi","category-baskanlik-butcesi","category-butce","category-buyume","category-cumhurbaskanligi-hukumet-sistemi-butcesi","category-dis-politika","category-dis-ticaret","category-dogu-akdeniz","category-dolarizasyon","category-ekonomi","category-enflasyon","category-genel","category-guncel","category-hayat","category-issizlik","category-teror","category-turizm","category-verimlilik","category-yatirimlar","tag-2018-kur-atagi","tag-butce-aciginin-finansmani","tag-buyume","tag-dovizin-yukselmesi","tag-maastricht-kriteri","tag-turizm"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10466"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10469,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10466\/revisions\/10469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}