{"id":10528,"date":"2020-05-29T22:08:45","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T22:08:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10528"},"modified":"2020-05-30T09:18:36","modified_gmt":"2020-05-30T09:18:36","slug":"cds-ucar-gider","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10528","title":{"rendered":"CDS  U\u00e7ar Gider"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bor\u00e7 para arayanlar milli s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131klar\u0131nda neyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemez. Kendilerinde her ne kadar <span style=\"color:#8e2020\" class=\"has-inline-color\"><strong>&#8220;\u00f6z g\u00fcven tavan&#8221;<\/strong><\/span> olsa da fon sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n da birtak\u0131m haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131(?) olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r.  Fon talep edenlerin finansal kredibilitesi bor\u00e7lanma konusunda kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. \u00dclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma rakamlar\u0131 \u00fczerine kredi risk primi <strong>(CDS)<\/strong> eklenerek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri belirlenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f finansmana ba\u015fvurdu\u011funda da durum b\u00f6yledir. \u00dclke ka\u00e7 faizle bor\u00e7lan\u0131rsa bor\u00e7lans\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne ayr\u0131ca  CDS kadar <strong>&#8220;ek maliyet&#8221;<\/strong> y\u00fcklenecektir.  Nas\u0131l ki sigorta sisteminde daha \u00f6nce ge\u00e7irilmi\u015f hastal\u0131klar, ailedeki kal\u0131tsal hastal\u0131klar, ya da hayat tarz\u0131 sigorta priminin miktar\u0131nda etkili ise CDS&#8217;lerde de benzer durum s\u00f6z konusudur. Bunun ne kadar adil oldu\u011fu tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00dclke aleyhine birtak\u0131m kanaatler i\u00e7erip i\u00e7ermedi\u011fi; risk puanlar\u0131 hesaplan\u0131rken bor\u00e7lular aleyhine bir tak\u0131m olumsuz de\u011ferlendirmelerin olmas\u0131 kabul edilebilir de\u011fildir. Bu ku\u015fkular her daim sabit olsa dahi sonu\u00e7ta \u00fclkelerin finansman ihtiyac\u0131 hep aleyhlerine geli\u015fmektedir.  \u00dcstelik veri toplama y\u00f6ntemleri, \u00fclkeden bilgi toplama kaynaklar\u0131,  ne kadar ku\u015fkulu olsa dahi sonu\u00e7ta veri, veridir.  <em>Tarla s\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr<\/em>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bor\u00e7 anla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesine giden kamu \u00f6zel kurumlar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131r bekleyen bir mekanizma vard\u0131r. Piyasa faizleri tamam.. Ya \u00fcst\u00fcne eklenen CDS primleri ne olacak? \u0130\u015fte burada <strong>\u00fclke riski, ekonomik ve siyasi riskler <\/strong>ile<strong> jeopolitik riskler<\/strong>in de i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir paket haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu paketin i\u00e7ine, \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki risklerin de dahil edildi\u011fi bir hesaplama \u015fekli devreye girecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015eimdi mevcutlardan gidelim. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son y\u0131llardaki risk primi \u00a0genelde <span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">120-160<\/span> aras\u0131ndad\u0131r&#8230; Bunun anlam\u0131, kredi faizlerine<strong> ilave 1,5\u00a0 puan <\/strong>kadar bir risk puan\u0131 da eklenerek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin bulunmas\u0131d\u0131r.  <span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong>Egemenler<\/strong><\/span>, her \u00fclkeye bir risk puan\u0131 bi\u00e7mi\u015f olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dunya.com\/kose-yazisi\/siz-hic-g-20-ulkelerinin-cds-primlerine-baktiniz-mi\/459946\">CDS&#8217;i olmayan  \u00fclke yoktur. <\/a>\u0130ngiltere&#8217;nin ve Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n  dahi bir CDS primi mevcuttur. Bu itibarla geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler 50 puan ve alt\u0131nda, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler 100-150 aras\u0131nda iken; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin CDS risk puan\u0131n\u0131n 650 puana dayanmas\u0131n\u0131n bir anlam\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerek. Neredeyse <strong>\u00f6dedi\u011fimiz faizin 4 kat\u0131<\/strong> risk primine maruz kalmak, anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r bir durum de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015e\u00f6yle bir geriye do\u011fru bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda.. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin derdinin hi\u00e7 bitmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">24 Kas\u0131m 2015 Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rusya ile ticaret bir anda kesildi so\u011fuk r\u00fczgarlar esiyor. Turistler de gelmedi \u00a0o sene.  8 milyon ki\u015fi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 1\/5 misafir say\u0131s\u0131na denk d\u00fc\u015fmekteydi. Ekonomi, durumdan hi\u00e7 memnun olmad\u0131. Derken, bunlar da neymi\u015f diyece\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlere gelindi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">15 Temmuz 2016&nbsp; malum, menfur kalk\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fand\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00dclkenin damarlar\u0131ndan kan \u00e7ekildi: Siyasi, ekonomik ve b\u00fcrokratik sars\u0131nt\u0131 y\u00f6netimde \u00f6nemli bir bo\u015fluk do\u011furdu.  Bu d\u00f6nemde bile CDS rakamlar\u0131 300\u2019e dayanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00dclke normalinin neredeyse iki kat\u0131na ula\u015fan rakamlar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2017 Her \u015feyi d\u00fczene koyup yeniden yola revan oldu\u011fumuz d\u00f6nem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2017 ne\u015feliyiz.. Yeniden anla\u015fmalar ve b\u00f6lgesel birliktelikler\u2026 Ekonomi &nbsp;%7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Risk primi 150 puan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2018 Zeytindal\u0131 Harekat\u0131 ile ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye jeo-stratejik olarak g\u00fcvenli\u011fini \u00f6nceliklendirmi\u015fti. G\u00fcvenli\u011fi ihmal ederek yap\u0131lan her\u015fey bir anda bo\u015fa gidebilirdi. Mart ay\u0131nda Rahip Brunson m\u00fcebbet hapis cezas\u0131 talebi ile yarg\u0131lan\u0131rken, Nisan ay\u0131nda ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 masada. CDS havay\u0131 erken koklad\u0131 200 puandan y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; F35 projesinden T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015flanmak istendi. \u0130ki bakan ABD\u2019nin kara listesinde. Dolar da hareketlendi: 1 dolar= 4,10\u20ba.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">24 Haziran Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet Sistemi se\u00e7imleri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">13 A\u011fustos CDS 583 puan\u2026 1 $ = 7,11 \u20ba oldu. B\u00f6yle bir rakam\u0131 uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">13 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de TCMB, <strong>faizleri 625 bps<\/strong> artt\u0131rd\u0131, <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">faizler %24<\/span><\/strong>\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Dolarda gev\u015feme 6,20 \u20ba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">12 Ekim\u2019de papaz \u00fclkesine g\u00f6nderildi. CDS 380 bps,\u00a0 dolar ters d\u00f6nd\u00fc 5,60 \u20ba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2018\u2019in sonunda CDS 350 puan; dolar kuru&nbsp; 5,20 \u20ba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para laz\u0131md\u0131, y\u00fcksek maliyetlerden bor\u00e7lan\u0131ld\u0131. Bor\u00e7 verenler i\u00e7in faiz geliri, bor\u00e7 alanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faiz kamburu b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.  Maliyet \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Faizler maliyetlere yans\u0131d\u0131. Buyurun \u00a0<strong>maliyet enflasyonu.<\/strong>.. Ama riskler bitmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2019 S400\u2019ler ve Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131 Harekat\u0131. Ekonomi yine r\u00fczgar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki yaprak sanki; <em>savruluyor<\/em>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u0131l sonunda &#8220;Do\u011fu Akdeniz ve Libya UMH ile anla\u015fma&#8221; her \u015fey tamam derken\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2020 vir\u00fcsl\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131:<span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-purple-color\"> <strong>Corona\u2026<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin bagaj\u0131 dolu.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00dclke olarak sadece ekonomik riskler yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Siyasi ve jeopolitik riskler de var. Bu riskler bir \u015fekilde Amerika, Rusya ve Avrupa ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en zay\u0131f yan\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131. En kolay kast\u0131klar\u0131 yer, finansman. \u00dclkeye para laz\u0131m, o da hazinede yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye bu finansman ihtiyac\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131k\u00e7a <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">IMF<\/span><\/strong> hep kar\u015f\u0131dan el sallayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IMF se\u00e7ene\u011fi ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gitmesi demektir&#8230; 2001\u2019den tecr\u00fcbeliyiz. Vergi, harcama, tar\u0131ma s\u0131n\u0131rlama, \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme \u00fclkenin eli kolu ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O y\u00fczden <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">2001 program\u0131<\/span><\/strong>, <em><strong>&#8220;D\u0131\u015f politikay\u0131 ABD&#8217;ye, \u00a0ekonomiyi IMF\u2019 ye, \u00a0i\u00e7 politikay\u0131 da AB&#8217;ye \u00a0ba\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>IMF<\/strong> d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, ba\u015fka se\u00e7eneklere \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gerek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bor\u00e7 para arayanlar milli s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131klar\u0131nda neyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemez. Kendilerinde her ne kadar &#8220;\u00f6z g\u00fcven tavan&#8221; olsa da fon sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n da birtak\u0131m haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131(?) olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. Fon talep edenlerin finansal kredibilitesi bor\u00e7lanma konusunda kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. \u00dclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma rakamlar\u0131 \u00fczerine kredi risk primi (CDS) eklenerek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri belirlenir. T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f finansmana ba\u015fvurdu\u011funda da durum b\u00f6yledir. \u00dclke [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10529,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[546,746,533,771,745,893,111,1,166,711,591],"tags":[324,537,1007,414,1008,367,1005,1009,134,1006],"class_list":["post-10528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-butce","category-butce-aciklari","category-buyume","category-cds","category-cumhurbaskanligi-hukumet-sistemi-butcesi","category-dogu-akdeniz","category-ekonomi","category-genel","category-guncel","category-kriz","category-para","tag-15-temmuz","tag-borc","tag-cds-primi","tag-faiz-lobisi","tag-faiz-yuku","tag-imf","tag-kredi","tag-rahip-brunson","tag-rus-ucagi","tag-ulke-riski"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10528"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10528\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10532,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10528\/revisions\/10532"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}