{"id":10672,"date":"2021-06-05T19:39:51","date_gmt":"2021-06-05T19:39:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10672"},"modified":"2021-06-05T19:43:02","modified_gmt":"2021-06-05T19:43:02","slug":"10672-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10672","title":{"rendered":"CDS: Yeni S\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn Ad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Herkesin dilinde bir&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/cds-ucar-gider\/\">CDS<\/a>\u2026 \u201c<span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">Risk Primi<\/span>\u201d de dedik. Kredi sa\u011flayanlar, alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahsil edemezse, alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 sigorta ettirmesinin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Risk var m\u0131d\u0131r? Evet her alacakta bir tahsil sorunu ihtimal dahilindedir. Ama bunun bir \u201cmakul\u00fc\u201d olmal\u0131d\u0131r. CDS y\u00fcksekse \u00fclke hakikaten sorunludur. \u00d6deyememe durumu vard\u0131r. Finansman ba\u015fka ama\u00e7lara hizmet edecektir, bor\u00e7 kap\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ya da \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc\/a\u00e7\u0131k bir ambargonun arac\u0131d\u0131r. Buna finansman\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 alan gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterilerek pe\u015fin bir cayd\u0131rma s\u00f6z konusu olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mesela Yunanistan\u2026 Y\u0131llard\u0131r bir bor\u00e7 sarmal\u0131nda. Bor\u00e7 acziyeti olan bir \u00fclke. Sa\u00e7 tra\u015f\u0131, (hair cut) diye diye faizlerden bir miktar sildirdi ama ana para durduk\u00e7a,&nbsp; bor\u00e7 baki\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sadece Almanya\u2019ya borcu dahi inan\u0131lmaz bir boyutta. \u015eans\u00f6lye Merkel ba\u015ftan Yunanistan ve di\u011fer bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler (Portekiz, Italy, Greece, Spain) &nbsp;i\u00e7in ba\u015f harflerinden olu\u015fan \u0130ngilizce\u2019de \u201cdomuzlar\u201d&nbsp; anlam\u0131na gelen \u201cPIGS\u201d demi\u015fti. Tabii i\u015f bununla bitmiyor. Kalkt\u0131 Yunanistan\u2019a gitti alacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in. Yo\u011fun sokak g\u00f6sterileri ve protestolarla kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Ama Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u201chava limanlar\u0131n\u0131n 39 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131\u201d alarak i\u015fi tatl\u0131ya ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hikaye eskidir. Yunanistan\u2019a, &nbsp;Moro Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k verildikten sonra kurulu\u015fun \u00fczerinden<em><strong>&nbsp;\u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/em>\u00fclkeyi y\u00f6netecek bir kral bulunamaz. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan Rusya, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 y\u00f6netecek kral\u0131 da ithal ederler:&nbsp;<strong>Bavyera Prensi I. Otto&nbsp;<\/strong>ad\u0131 ile Yunanistan taht\u0131na oturtulur. Yunanistan\u2019da Alman etkisi taaa!.. &nbsp;en ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015eimdi Almanya ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla AB\u2019nin Yunan sempatisinin k\u00f6keni budur. Yunanistan bu kadar bor\u00e7 bata\u011f\u0131nda ve b\u00fct\u00fcn tersaneleri ve havalimanlar\u0131 ile teslim al\u0131nan bir \u00fclke olarak CDS\u2019i ka\u00e7t\u0131r dersiniz? 70\u2026 Yaz\u0131yla \u201c<em>yetmi\u015f\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme konusunda sorunlu bir \u00fclke b\u00f6yle bir CDS y\u00fck\u00fc \u00f6derken; T\u00fcrkiye neden faizinin 3-5 kat\u0131 sigorta primine maruz kalmaktad\u0131r? T\u00fcrkiye risk primi uzun s\u00fcredir 300\u2019d\u00fcr\u2026 Ancak g\u00fcn olmu\u015f bu rakam&nbsp;<strong>650\u2019<\/strong>lere ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. bunun anlam\u0131 ekstra %6,6 y\u00fck demek. Sigortas\u0131, faizi a\u015fan bir bedel\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00f6nemi 2017\u2026 O zaman i\u00e7in 150 ile y\u0131l\u0131 tamamlasa da sene ba\u015f\u0131nda 280 seviyelerinden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ekonominin performans\u0131 ile rakamda bir d\u00fczelme g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CDS hak\u00e7as\u0131na bir hesaplama de\u011fildir. CDS \u00fclkeleri kendilerine g\u00f6re bir analize tabi tutma y\u00f6ntemidir. CDS kendisi sigortas\u0131ndan pahal\u0131 bir ara\u00e7t\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde sallanan bir k\u0131l\u0131\u00e7 gibidir. \u00dclkelerin daha maliyetli bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ve kaynak temininde zorluk ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n sebebidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bunun ad\u0131 dolayl\u0131 s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr. Sermaye gruplar\u0131 ellerindeki fonlar\u0131 daha maliyetli bir \u015fekilde kulland\u0131rtmakta, finansman ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler de daha pahal\u0131ya bor\u00e7lanmaktad\u0131r. Endeksler ve Risk Primi hesaplamalar\u0131 konusunda s\u00fcrekli uyar\u0131\/d\u00fczeltme talepleri yetmemektedir. \u00c7ok boyutlu bu endekslerde olu\u015f(turul)an&nbsp; hatalar ile dolu raporlar \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yeni s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc arac\u0131d\u0131r. Hesaplamalar hem \u00fclkenin daha y\u00fcksek maliyetle bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131na neden olmakta, hem de \u00fclkemizin entelekt\u00fcelleri hala bu hatalarla dolu hesaplamalar\u0131 referans almaya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi endekslemeler \u00fczerinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lamaya devam etmektedirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rusya, ABD ve AB hassas dengeleri, \u0130srail-Filistin geriliminden Libya hatta Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019e uzanan her t\u00fcrl\u00fc siyasi riskler, jeopolitik riskler veya y\u00f6netim riski bahane edilerek T\u00fcrkiye s\u00fcrekli zor tercihlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rak\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7ok boyutlu veri setleri tek boyuta indirgenerek, ulus devletlerin sermayenin kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131na girmesi sa\u011flanmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan&nbsp;<strong>bu d\u00fczenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkesin dilinde bir&nbsp;CDS\u2026 \u201cRisk Primi\u201d de dedik. Kredi sa\u011flayanlar, alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahsil edemezse, alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 sigorta ettirmesinin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Risk var m\u0131d\u0131r? Evet her alacakta bir tahsil sorunu ihtimal dahilindedir. Ama bunun bir \u201cmakul\u00fc\u201d olmal\u0131d\u0131r. CDS y\u00fcksekse \u00fclke hakikaten sorunludur. \u00d6deyememe durumu vard\u0131r. Finansman ba\u015fka ama\u00e7lara hizmet edecektir, bor\u00e7 kap\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ya da \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc\/a\u00e7\u0131k bir ambargonun arac\u0131d\u0131r. Buna [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10673,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[660,497,498,546,746,533,771,921,712,111,479,543,1,166,478,711,748,922,591],"tags":[1042,723,1041,225,1040,1043],"class_list":["post-10672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ab","category-almanya","category-almanya-dis-politika","category-butce","category-butce-aciklari","category-buyume","category-cds","category-covid19","category-dolarizasyon","category-ekonomi","category-enflasyon","category-faiz","category-genel","category-guncel","category-issizlik","category-kriz","category-maastricht-kriterleri","category-pandemi","category-para","tag-almanya-yunanistan","tag-cds","tag-cds-somuru","tag-faiz","tag-yunanistan-cds","tag-yunanistan-krali-i-otto"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10672"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10672\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10676,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10672\/revisions\/10676"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}