{"id":10769,"date":"2021-10-09T21:58:40","date_gmt":"2021-10-09T21:58:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10769"},"modified":"2021-10-10T06:18:20","modified_gmt":"2021-10-10T06:18:20","slug":"enflasyon-yukselmese-iyi-idi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10769","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon Y\u00fckselmese &#8220;\u0130yi&#8221; idi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomi y\u0131llard\u0131r bir&nbsp;<em><strong>toplam fayda&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em>teorisinden s\u00f6z eder. Herkes kendi faydas\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131rsa ekonomideki fayda da artacakt\u0131r. \u0130ktisat biliminin sayg\u0131yla and\u0131\u011f\u0131 Adam Smith de bir&nbsp;<span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong>\u201cG\u00f6r\u00fcnmez El\u201d&nbsp;<\/strong><\/span>teorisi anlat\u0131r. G\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el; \u201dEkonomide kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in hareket eden bireylerin, fark\u0131na varmadan da olsa topluma daha b\u00fcy\u00fck &nbsp;fayda sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131\u201d iddias\u0131ndad\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cG\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el\u201d\u00a0<\/strong>b\u00f6yle ifade etse de baz\u0131 yerlerde<strong>\u00a0\u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ayaklar\u201d<\/strong>\u0131n da devreye girmesi bu beklentiyi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Topa elle m\u00fcdahale etmek gibi\u2026\u00a0  Ayaklarda bazen\u00a0<strong>postal<\/strong>\u00a0olur, bazen\u00a0<strong>rugan \u0131skarpinler<\/strong>\u2026 Nihayetinde  &#8220;G\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el&#8221; d\u00fczeni bir \u015fekilde bozulur. G\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el, piyasada hi\u00e7 bir \u015feyin bo\u015f yere olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bahseder. Ta\u015f\u0131n, teze\u011fin bile m\u00fc\u015fterisinin bulundu\u011fu, kendilerine \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el\u201d taraf\u0131ndan verilen talimatla bu i\u015fi yapmaya karar verecekleri y\u0131llarca anlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak her \u00fclkenin milli s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7indeki ekonomik faaliyetler kadar bir de s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen aktivitelerin de etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rlar a\u015fabilmektedir. Covid Pandemisi gibi, lojistikte ya\u015fanan konteyner krizi gibi&#8230; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bir de \u00fclkelerin enerji, hammadde, ara mal gibi konularda birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan <strong><em>&#8220;dolayl\u0131 kontroller&#8221;<\/em><\/strong>  var. Bir \u00fclkedeki bol \u00fcretim ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131n ana girdisi olabilir. <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&#8220;Kontrol&#8221;<\/span><\/strong> s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda geciktirir mesela; ya da vermez&#8230; fiyat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltir!..  \u00dcretti\u011fin mal\u0131 g\u00f6nderecek kargo bulmazs\u0131n.  Ekonomiyi strese sokan bu durumlar\u0131n en \u00f6nemli sonucu fiyatlar genel seviyesindeki y\u00fckselmedir.  Kom\u015fuda pi\u015fenin bize d\u00fc\u015fmesi enflasyon olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir.  \u0130thal girdilerin maliyetlerinde ya da temin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcklerinde ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f ithal edilen enflasyon olur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi\u00e7 beklenmeyen geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin kendi i\u00e7indeki enflasyon bizim gibi \u00fclkelere <strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&#8220;ihra\u00e7 edilen enflasyon&#8221;<\/span><\/em><\/strong> olarak da gelir. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin d\u00f6rtte birinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD&#8217;deki geli\u015fmeler bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu T\u00dcFE baz\u0131nda %5  olmu\u015f. ABD i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131k \u015feyler bunlar. Fransa %2,7 ile son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde. \u0130talya da \u00f6yle&#8230; \u00c7in de %4-5 civar\u0131nda. Bu rakamlar \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerinin iki kat\u0131 kadar. \u015fimdi bunun \u00e7evreye yans\u0131mas\u0131 <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">&#8220;enflasyon ta\u015fmas\u0131&#8221;<\/span><\/strong> olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Zaten T\u00fcrkiye gibi kronik enflasyon sorunu olanlar i\u00e7in \u015fartlar zorla\u015fmaktad\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u0131l 2001\u2026 Ekonomi bug\u00fcnlere haz\u0131rland\u0131. Sermaye hareketleri serbestle\u015ftirildi. Dalgal\u0131 kur devreye girdi. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirmeler ile kamunun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr aya\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Haliyle destek ve te\u015fvikler azald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye bu kadar serbestiyete haz\u0131r de\u011fildi. Kontrols\u00fczl\u00fck ve sahipsizlik, ekonomide m\u00fclkiyetin el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bal\u0131klar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine sebep oldu. \u0130ktisadi geli\u015fmi\u015flik seviyesi, demokratik altyap\u0131, sistemin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na mani oldu. B\u00fcrokrasi bask\u0131nd\u0131, i\u015fler yeterince h\u0131zlanamad\u0131. \u0130\u015f kurma s\u00fcre\u00e7leri b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun oldu. Sonu\u00e7ta y\u00fcksek ithalat k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ekonomimizi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n <strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">en k\u0131r\u0131lgan<\/span><\/em><\/strong> ekonomilerinden birisi haline getirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2013 ba\u015fta 27 May\u0131s Gezi olaylar\u0131 ile ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00fcst\u00fcne 17\/25 ile devam etti. FET\u00d6 ter\u00f6r\u00fc ekonomik dengeleri daha \u00e7ok bozdu. Nihayet birden&nbsp;<em>\u201cpara politikas\u0131 ke\u015ffedildi\u201d<\/em>&nbsp;ve TCMB eliyle faizlere yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahale edilen bir d\u00f6nem ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para Kurulu, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 derken kararlar, kararnameler ile T\u00fcrkiye y\u00fcksek reel faiz \u00f6der hale geldi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131 da belirsizli\u011fi artt\u0131rd\u0131. Oysa TCMB Kurulu\u015f Kanunu, Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong><em>\u201ch\u00fck\u00fcmetle birlikte fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaktan sorumlu<\/em><\/strong>\u201d &nbsp;tutuyordu (Madde 4-I\/b). M\u00fcdahaleler ile gelen her yeni m\u00fcdahale, \u00fclke riskini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve TL a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fme d\u00f6nemlerinde de CDS ile maliyetler y\u00fckseltildi. Bug\u00fcnlerde yine 400bps \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan CDS ile faizin maliyetine 4 puan ilave de buradan gelmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00f6ylece \u201ckendi kuyru\u011funun pe\u015findeki kedi\u201d gibi faiz inerse kur y\u00fckselir; kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">faizi art\u0131r<\/span><\/strong>; o enflasyonu azd\u0131r\u0131r\u2026 gibi ekonominin k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcl\u00fc konular\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcden \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131z i\u00e7in, \u00f6nce yap\u0131sal sorunlardan olu\u015fan kronik enflasyonu \u00e7\u00f6zmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ithal girdiye ba\u011fl\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyondaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u0131p\u0131rdanmalar dahi ekonomide  b\u00fcy\u00fck etkiler do\u011furabilmektedir. Bundan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n yolu belli: \u00dcretimde ithal girdi oran\u0131 azalt\u0131lacak; dolarizasyona ba\u011fl\u0131, kurdan bu kadar etkilenen bir ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nacak; finansal kaynak giri\u015fine olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k azalt\u0131lacak&#8230; Bunlar yeni politikalar de\u011fil yeni perspektif gerektirmektedir. Bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hep bu y\u00f6nde tutmak \u015fartt\u0131r. Paket a\u00e7\u0131klanacaksa bile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131 bu olmal\u0131d\u0131r. &#8220;Merkez&#8221;in de bu kadar politikan\u0131n i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fc al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r: \u201cEnflasyon hedeflemesi\u201d yaps\u0131n. Bu hedefleri kullanmak i\u00e7in ara\u00e7 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sonuna kadar kullans\u0131n&#8230; Ama <strong><span style=\"color:#170c91\" class=\"has-inline-color\">&#8220;g\u00fcven&#8221;<\/span><\/strong> konusuna zerre halel getirmesin!..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6te yandan ekonominin, yeniden \u00fcretim ekonomisine d\u00f6nmesi gerekmektedir. Maliyet unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n dengelenmesi, \u00fcretimde devlet yanl\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin indirilmesi gerekmektedir. Y\u00fcksek kur, daha pahal\u0131 ithalat demektir. Daha pahal\u0131 imalat, daha pahal\u0131 tar\u0131m, daha pahal\u0131 nakliye ve <strong>&#8220;azalan refah&#8221; <\/strong>demektir. Her yerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen <em><strong>&#8220;maskeli be\u015fler&#8221;<\/strong><\/em> i\u00e7in de gerekli ve yeterli tedbirler beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-very-dark-gray-color wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6nce&nbsp;<span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong>enflasyona giden yollar\u0131n kapanmas\u0131<\/strong><\/span> \u015fartt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomi y\u0131llard\u0131r bir&nbsp;toplam fayda&nbsp;teorisinden s\u00f6z eder. Herkes kendi faydas\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131rsa ekonomideki fayda da artacakt\u0131r. \u0130ktisat biliminin sayg\u0131yla and\u0131\u011f\u0131 Adam Smith de bir&nbsp;\u201cG\u00f6r\u00fcnmez El\u201d&nbsp;teorisi anlat\u0131r. G\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el; \u201dEkonomide kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in hareket eden bireylerin, fark\u0131na varmadan da olsa topluma daha b\u00fcy\u00fck &nbsp;fayda sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131\u201d iddias\u0131ndad\u0131r.\u201d \u201cG\u00f6r\u00fcnmez el\u201d\u00a0b\u00f6yle ifade etse de baz\u0131 yerlerde\u00a0\u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ayaklar\u201d\u0131n da devreye girmesi bu [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[533,771,111,479,543,1,711],"tags":[1076,190,225,1077,416,204,925],"class_list":["post-10769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buyume","category-cds","category-ekonomi","category-enflasyon","category-faiz","category-genel","category-kriz","tag-disa-bagimlilik","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz","tag-konteyner","tag-kur","tag-lojistik","tag-pandemi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10769"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10774,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10769\/revisions\/10774"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}