{"id":10781,"date":"2021-10-26T22:10:31","date_gmt":"2021-10-26T22:10:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10781"},"modified":"2021-10-26T22:10:34","modified_gmt":"2021-10-26T22:10:34","slug":"faizi-indirmek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10781","title":{"rendered":"Faizi \u0130ndirmek"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomideki geli\u015fmeler, h\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u00a0ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeni tercihler ve uygulama ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmeye zorlad\u0131.\u00a0 TCMB Para Kurulu g\u00f6sterge faizini %18\u2019den %16\u2019ya indirdi. Dolar buna hemen tepkisini verdi:\u00a0 9,45 \u20ba oldu. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda 8,25 \u20ba seviyesinde olan kurdaki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, ekonomideki hassasiyetin bir g\u00f6stergesidir.\u00a0 <em><strong>%20\u2019lere varan bir art\u0131\u015f<\/strong><\/em> enflasyon ve sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131na sebeptir. Bir ba\u015fka g\u00f6sterge olan, T\u00fcrkiye \u00fclke risk primini g\u00f6steren be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvillerin iflas primi, 445 baz puan oldu. Bu rakam bir ay \u00f6ncesinde 350 bps seviyesinde idi. B\u00f6ylelikle faizdeki indirimin yar\u0131s\u0131 CDS\u2019e gitmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonominin bu geli\u015fmeleri elbette, al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r. Sanayinin finansman maliyetleri ve de ithal girdi maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, \u00fcretimin de pahal\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r.&nbsp;&nbsp;Ortal\u0131k toz-duman\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomi,\u00a0<strong><em>\u201csadece ekonomi\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>de\u011fil\u2026 Siyasetin bir anda ekonomiyi alt-\u00fcst ediverdi\u011fini defalarca g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu y\u00fczden ekonomi\u00a0 siyasi, konjonkt\u00fcrel, jeo-politik ve stratejik pek \u00e7ok alanlar\u0131n etki alan\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bu etkilerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da\u00a0<em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong>enflasyon, faiz, kur<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/em>gibi nihai g\u00f6stergelerle kendisini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomi istikrar, \u00fcretim-t\u00fcketim, arz-talep, yat\u0131r\u0131m-tasarruf, mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 ile finansal piyasalar, sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131 denge, \u00fccret ve verimlilik gibi bir\u00e7ok alanda makro dengeleri ifade eder. Birden bire artan ya da d\u00fc\u015fen borsa hisselerine anlam veremeyi\u015f ne derece normalse; makro g\u00f6stergelerdeki alg\u0131 ile kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bu de\u011fi\u015fimi de bilindik ekonomi teorileri ile ne anlamak ne de anlamland\u0131rmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bir \u00fclke ekonomisinin b\u00fct\u00fcn dengelerinin tam k\u0131vam\u0131nda oldu\u011fu zamanlar 10 seneden fazlad\u0131r, hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkede g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.&nbsp; Hi\u00e7bir ekonomi bu dengeleri tamam\u0131yla kuramaz oldu. Kriz olmasa da g\u00f6stergeler do\u011frudan hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc etkilemektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015eimdi kur 10 \u20ba olsa ne olur? Olsun!.. Ama orada kals\u0131n.&nbsp;<strong><em>Belirli olsun<\/em><\/strong>. Bilelim ki 1 dolar = 10 \u20ba\u2026 Maliyetler, fiyatlar, s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler buna g\u00f6re yap\u0131l\u0131r.&nbsp;&nbsp;Kurdaki bu belirsizlik y\u00fcksek kurdan daha tehlikelidir.&nbsp; En \u00f6nemlisi do\u011fru fiyatlamaya engeldir. Ger\u00e7ek fiyat\u0131n olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomilerin y\u00f6netilmesi de zordur.&nbsp; Bu y\u00fczden kurun y\u00fckselmesinden ziyade nereye kadar y\u00fckselece\u011fi sorundur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Evet y\u00fcksek kurdan <strong>ihracat\u00e7\u0131 memnun <\/strong>olur. Kur y\u00fckselirse ihracat artar. \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00fclkeye<strong>\u00a0d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan gerekli\u00a0<\/strong>ve \u00f6nemlidir. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131, y\u00fcksek kur sayesinde rekabet\u00e7i fiyat ile pazar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletebilir. Ancak ihracat\u0131 da\u00a0ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bizim gibi \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in bunun riski, \u00fcretimin pahal\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 yani maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r,\u00a0dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00fcksek fiyatt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u015e\u00f6yle ifade edelim:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0130thalat\u0131n %13\u2019\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                  %77\u2019si ara mal\u0131 ve<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                  %10\u2019u da t\u00fcketim mal\u0131ndan olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r.\u00a0 Bu oranda ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 , \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen \u00fcretimimizin \u00be\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00a0\u00a0<strong>ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131<\/strong>\u00a0oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Anlam\u0131,\u00a0<strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u201cithal etmezsen \u00fcretemezsin!..<\/span>\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0demektir ki b\u00f6yle bir durumda, ekonomi diye bir \u015feyden s\u00f6z etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. \u0130\u00e7 piyasa i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan \u00fcretimden s\u00f6z ediyorsak; bu\u00a0\u00fcretim, nihai t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na sebep olabilir.\u00a0 Bu\u00a0iyidir\u2026\u00a0Ancak ihracata mal yapmak i\u00e7in \u00fcretimden\u00a0s\u00f6z ediliyorsa\u00a0o vakit,\u00a0ithal\u00a0girdi ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan s\u00f6z edilebilir. Ya da\u00a0\u00a0<strong>\u201c\u0130thalat yoksa; ihracat da yoktur.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0130thalat\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131&nbsp; nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn ya da t\u00fcketim mal\u0131nda olsa idi, o kadar \u00f6nemli olmayabilirdi. Ancak ara mal\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek kur nedeniyle \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 demektir. Burada faizler sebebiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmek istenen \u00fcretim maliyetinin kur sebebiyle artmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r\u2026&nbsp;<strong>\u015eimdi ne olacak?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ba\u015fta maliyetler sebebiyle\u00a0<strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">y\u00fcksek enflasyon<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek maliyetlere kar\u015f\u0131 devlet yeniden\u00a0<strong>g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr elini\u00a0<\/strong>piyasalara uzatmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131, \u00a0enerji maliyetleri, \u00f6zellikle petroldeki 90 dolara varan varil fiyat\u0131, piyasalar\u0131 yang\u0131n yerine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeni bir destek-te\u015fvik program\u0131 belki de istikrar program\u0131na dahi ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi ihmal edilmemelidir. Sadece faize dokunarak ekonomilerin verece\u011fi tepki, ba\u015fka yerlerdeki olumsuz geli\u015fmelerle, fazlas\u0131yla ekonomiyi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmektedir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131 bu d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in bir \u00e7izgi olacakt\u0131r. G\u00fcven endeksleri alg\u0131n\u0131n ne y\u00f6nde geli\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Takip edelim\u2026 Bekleyip g\u00f6relim!..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomideki geli\u015fmeler, h\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u00a0ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeni tercihler ve uygulama ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmeye zorlad\u0131.\u00a0 TCMB Para Kurulu g\u00f6sterge faizini %18\u2019den %16\u2019ya indirdi. Dolar buna hemen tepkisini verdi:\u00a0 9,45 \u20ba oldu. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda 8,25 \u20ba seviyesinde olan kurdaki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, ekonomideki hassasiyetin bir g\u00f6stergesidir.\u00a0 %20\u2019lere varan bir art\u0131\u015f enflasyon ve sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131na sebeptir. Bir [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[533,771,712,479,1,166,711],"tags":[723,1075,164,671,1082,1083],"class_list":["post-10781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buyume","category-cds","category-dolarizasyon","category-enflasyon","category-genel","category-guncel","category-kriz","tag-cds","tag-faiz-indirimi","tag-ihracat","tag-ithalat","tag-kur-artisi","tag-siyasi-kararlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10781"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10781\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10783,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10781\/revisions\/10783"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}