Bunun b\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131 belliydi\u2026 Enflasyon geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin de sorunu olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD %6 seviyesini, Euro b\u00f6lgesi de %4 ‘\u00fc ge\u00e7ti. Geli\u015fmekte olanlar veya k\u0131r\u0131lganlar i\u00e7in %6 kabul edilebilir olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. En k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc Brezilya: +%10… <\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00fcnya, 2008\u2019den bu yana \u00fcst\u00fcne y\u00fcklenen gerilimi \u00f6nce maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle petrolden kaynaklanan fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131; \u00f6te yandan pandemiyle de fiyatlar\u0131 tetikleyen bir enflasyon, hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki azalmay\u0131 y\u00f6netemez hale geldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2008\u2019de ne olmu\u015ftu? D\u00fcnya Mortgage krizi olarak ba\u015flayan krizi, bir gayr-\u0131 menkul krizi olarak ya\u015fad\u0131. Yar\u0131m kalan projeler, sat\u0131n al\u0131nan m\u00fclklerin \u00f6denemeyen bor\u00e7lar\u0131, i\u015fsizlik ve ekonomilerde b\u00fcy\u00fck bor\u00e7 krizi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerisi olarak yine merkez bankalar\u0131 devreye girdi. B\u00fcy\u00fck oranda parasalla\u015fmaya giderek piyasalar\u0131 paraya bo\u011fdular. 2008 krizi \u00f6ncesi 7-800 milyar dolar seviyesindeki FED bilan\u00e7osu ve ayn\u0131 seviyelerdeki ECB bilan\u00e7osu co\u015fturuldu. Piyasalarda bir anda 4 kat hem dolar hem de Avro s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Avrupa ve ABD\u2019nin hemen hemen ayn\u0131 zamanlarda ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 5 sene devam etti. Sonras\u0131nda bilan\u00e7olar yeniden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Piyasalardaki para bollu\u011funun sonu denirken geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden de sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in baharlar sona ermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n borcu yine geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, sorun yoktu. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ise yaz\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131y\u0131 aktarmayan<\/strong> ev sahipleri gibi \u201ck\u0131\u015f\u0131n ya\u011fmurda akan evlerinin\u201d<\/em><\/strong> derdine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcler. K\u0131sa vadeli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler yetmiyordu. \u00dclkelerin bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc artm\u0131\u015f, finans maliyetleri artm\u0131\u015f, bolluk g\u00fcnlerinin de etkisiyle ekonomide talep artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hele d\u00f6viz bollu\u011fu sebebiyle olu\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur ortam\u0131, ithalat\u0131 ucuzlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130thalat d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130hracat ithalat\u0131n ancak yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilir oldu. \u0130hracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131, 2010\u2019dan itibaren 5 y\u0131l boyunca, %55-60 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretmi\u015ftir. Bu d\u00f6nem ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilme d\u00f6nemleridir. 2010 sonras\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek 75 milyar dolar (2011) cari a\u00e7\u0131k seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ki bu durum milli gelirin %9\u2019u gibi bir rakam olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u00fcm\u00fclatif olarak son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 500 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bunun teknik olarak finansman\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma \u00fczerinden olamazd\u0131, zaten bor\u00e7lar fazla idi. Ancak kendini d\u00f6nd\u00fcren bir yap\u0131ya sahipti. Para laz\u0131md\u0131: S\u0131cak para da bu faiz seviyesinde gelmezdi, faizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirmeler de bu kadar etmezdi\u2026 bor\u00e7lar devam ediyor. Bu bor\u00e7 \u00f6denmez!..<\/p>\n\n\n\n Geldik bu g\u00fcne\u2026D\u00f6viz artt\u0131, ithalat yava\u015flad\u0131. Ekim\u2019de, ayl\u0131k %93 ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemin zirve de\u011feridir.\u00a0 Cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan cari fazlaya ge\u00e7ildi. Ancak bu defa da kur \u00e7\u0131ld\u0131rd\u0131:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1 dolar=18 \u20ba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u015eimdi yetersiz varl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131za ra\u011fmen kredilerle ya\u015fanan bolluk g\u00fcnlerinin bedelini \u00f6deme zaman\u0131. Bu bedel sadece vatanda\u015fa enflasyon ve hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak m\u0131 yans\u0131mal\u0131? Elbette hay\u0131r!..<\/p>\n\n\n\n Konunun politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ve ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ile ilgili k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131na da sonraki yaz\u0131m\u0131za b\u0131rakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bunun b\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131 belliydi\u2026 Enflasyon geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin de sorunu olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD %6 seviyesini, Euro b\u00f6lgesi de %4 ‘\u00fc ge\u00e7ti. Geli\u015fmekte olanlar veya k\u0131r\u0131lganlar i\u00e7in %6 kabul edilebilir olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. En k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc Brezilya: +%10… D\u00fcnya, 2008\u2019den bu yana \u00fcst\u00fcne y\u00fcklenen gerilimi \u00f6nce maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle petrolden kaynaklanan fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131; \u00f6te yandan pandemiyle de fiyatlar\u0131 tetikleyen […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10804,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[661,942,746,712,111,479,543,1],"tags":[678,190],"class_list":["post-10803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ab-dis-politika","category-abd-dis-politika","category-butce-aciklari","category-dolarizasyon","category-ekonomi","category-enflasyon","category-faiz","category-genel","tag-dolarizasyon","tag-enflasyon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10803"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10803\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10805,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10803\/revisions\/10805"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10804"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}