{"id":10812,"date":"2021-12-25T21:18:47","date_gmt":"2021-12-25T21:18:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10812"},"modified":"2021-12-25T21:18:52","modified_gmt":"2021-12-25T21:18:52","slug":"10812-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10812","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye y\u0131llard\u0131r,&nbsp;<strong><em>\u201cy\u00fcksek faiz \u2013 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur\u201d<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;modeli \u00fczerinden gitti.&nbsp; Faiz i\u00e7in gelen kaynaklar, belki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur seviyelerinden; \u00fcstelik elde etti\u011fi faiz geliri ile de servetlerine servet katarak \u00fclkeden ayr\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde yerle\u015fiklerin bu geliri elde etmesi zengini daha zengin etti. Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda zenginler lehine&nbsp;<em><strong>\u201cs\u00fcnme\u201d<\/strong><\/em>&nbsp;ba\u015flad\u0131.&nbsp; Bu durum sonu\u00e7ta ithalat\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131, ihracat\u0131 azaltt\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 \u00fclke \u00fcretiminde bir azalma anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. \u00dcretim yoksa istihdam da yoktur, ihracat da\u2026 Ancak y\u0131llard\u0131r devam eden b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n da istihdam konusunda umut verici geli\u015fmemesi de bir ba\u015fka garabettir. Te\u015fviklerin de etkisiyle 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 Cumhuriyet tarihinin en fazla ek istihdam\u0131n sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l olmu\u015ftur: 1 milyon 600 bin ki\u015fi\u2026 Di\u011fer y\u0131llarda ek istihdam bir milyonun alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ithalat\u0131n ucuz olmas\u0131, daha fazla sanayi mal\u0131n\u0131n ithal edilmesine ve daha fazla nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. D\u00f6viz bol, ithalat ucuz idi. \u00dcretim i\u00e7in beklenen giri\u015fimler&nbsp;<strong><em>\u201cithal \u00fcr\u00fcn varken de\u011fmez!..\u201d<\/em>&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;itirazlar\u0131na kap\u0131ld\u0131 gitti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu kadar te\u015fvik, destek ve paketler, gereksiz \u00e7abalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha ucuzu varken \u00fcretimle u\u011fra\u015fmak, bo\u015f \u00e7aba olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Haliyle bu durum yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretim ve istihdama engel oldu. \u0130thalat daha ucuz idi. Bir de ithalat\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde de engeller g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyordu. D\u00fcnya ticareti b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fme e\u011filiminde idi. Herkesin kazanmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu bir durum olarak alg\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 da&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong><em>\u201cistihdam yaratmayan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n genel e\u011filimi,&nbsp;<strong>i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00fczerinden sa\u011flanan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Sonu\u00e7ta herkesin yak\u0131ndan bildi\u011fi&nbsp;<strong><em>\u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck istihdam\u201d<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Daha fazla \u00fcretim yerine, daha fazla&nbsp; ithalatla ihtiya\u00e7lar kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Son 20 y\u0131lda \u00f6zellikle, ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmekle beraber, %60-70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda gidip gelmi\u015ftir. \u0130hracat, ithalat\u0131n paras\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layamamaktad\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f ticaretin %30 ile %40 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k vermesi, ortalamada 20 y\u0131lda, y\u0131ll\u0131k 30 milyar dolar&nbsp;<strong>cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong>&nbsp;anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Toplamda bu cari a\u00e7\u0131k miktar\u0131, neredeyse milli gelir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na gelip dayanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u0131l 2011 y\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. 75 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu y\u0131ldaki a\u00e7\u0131k tutar\u0131 IMF yetkililerinin dahi g\u00f6zlerini \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131kla a\u00e7mas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc IMF, cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/ milli gelir oran\u0131n\u0131 en fazla %8 olarak belirlemi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu oran\u0131n \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131k vermesi,&nbsp;<strong>\u00fclke iflas\u0131&nbsp;<\/strong>anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bu oran\u0131 IMF\u2019nin de kabul edemeyece\u011fi bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck olarak ifade etmek gerekmektedir. Her ne kadar kula\u011fa ho\u015f gelmese de IMF koridorlar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in iflas ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n da tetikleyicisi olmu\u015ftur. Zaten mevcut bir d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc varken, \u00fcst\u00fcne bir de cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan kaynaklanan bor\u00e7 eklenmi\u015ftir. Bu durum &nbsp;T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin daha fazla d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Her bor\u00e7lanmaya gidildi\u011finde y\u00fcksek faiz riski ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f; daha y\u00fcksek risk primleri&nbsp;<strong>(CDS)<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00f6denmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu sarmal\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. Bug\u00fcn ya\u015fanan d\u00f6viz ataklar\u0131 bu s\u00fcrecin bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r.&nbsp;<em><strong>Ge\u00e7ecektir\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye y\u0131llard\u0131r,&nbsp;\u201cy\u00fcksek faiz \u2013 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur\u201d&nbsp;modeli \u00fczerinden gitti.&nbsp; Faiz i\u00e7in gelen kaynaklar, belki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur seviyelerinden; \u00fcstelik elde etti\u011fi faiz geliri ile de servetlerine servet katarak \u00fclkeden ayr\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde yerle\u015fiklerin bu geliri elde etmesi zengini daha zengin etti. Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda zenginler lehine&nbsp;\u201cs\u00fcnme\u201d&nbsp;ba\u015flad\u0131.&nbsp; Bu durum sonu\u00e7ta ithalat\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131, ihracat\u0131 azaltt\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 \u00fclke \u00fcretiminde [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[743,771,745,543,1,166,922],"tags":[164,428,194],"class_list":["post-10812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-baskanlik-butcesi","category-cds","category-cumhurbaskanligi-hukumet-sistemi-butcesi","category-faiz","category-genel","category-guncel","category-pandemi","tag-ihracat","tag-nitelikli-uretim","tag-uretim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10812"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10812\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10814,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10812\/revisions\/10814"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}