{"id":10827,"date":"2022-02-18T21:33:12","date_gmt":"2022-02-18T21:33:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10827"},"modified":"2022-02-18T21:34:32","modified_gmt":"2022-02-18T21:34:32","slug":"faizi-vermeden-doviz-inmez-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10827","title":{"rendered":"Faizi Vermeden D\u00f6viz \u0130nmez mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2021\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fi, indirilen\u00a0<strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">faiz<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ve tetiklenen<span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u00a0<strong>d\u00f6viz<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>ile hat\u0131rlanacak. H\u0131zla artan yabanc\u0131 para mevduatlar\u0131 da\u00a0 bu d\u00f6nemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck sonucu olmaya aday.\u00a0 Kur ata\u011f\u0131, hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n merkezindeki yerini koruyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0<strong>\u201cafaki\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0y\u00fckseli\u015fler ge\u00e7se de\u00a0<em><strong>\u201co g\u00fcnler\u201d<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0unutulmu\u015f de\u011fil!..\u00a0 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve sabit gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck darbe yemi\u015f oldu. \u00d6nce k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir \u015fok olarak beklenen durumun devam etmesi, moralleri de olumsuz etkiledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6ncelikle, bir faiz indirimi politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131&nbsp;<em><strong>\u201cayak direme\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/em>olarak anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Sonras\u0131nda&nbsp;<strong>d\u00f6viz<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00fczerinden&nbsp;<strong>\u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc niyetli giri\u015fimler\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;olarak ifade edildi.&nbsp; Ancak bir ger\u00e7ek var ki al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc azalan dar gelirli i\u00e7in tehdit b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u2026 Hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve&nbsp;<strong>enflasyon<\/strong>&nbsp;konunun bir defal\u0131k bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi haline geldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faiz, kur ve enflasyon \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn birine dokunmak ekonomiyi yak\u0131yordu. Hele ki\u00a0<em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-purple-color\"><strong>\u201c\u00fclke, uluslararas\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131ksa;<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<strong>ayn\u0131 anda\u00a0d\u00f6viz kuru ve faiz\u00a0kontrol edilemez!..<\/strong>\u201c<\/em>\u00a0Bor\u00e7luluk d\u00fczeyi ve \u00f6demeler itibariyle yeniden bor\u00e7lanmak zorunlu ise\u2026 Cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lanmak ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz ise\u2026 faizler ve kur \u00fczerindeki operasyonlar\u0131n\u00a0<strong>\u201ctedbirli\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ancak ne yaz\u0131k ki verilerin ilan edilmesindeki gecikmeler, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n elini kolunu ba\u011flayabilmektedir.&nbsp; Bir ay sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanan&nbsp; enflasyon verileri, iki ay sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6demeler dengesi\/cari a\u00e7\u0131k&nbsp; verileri; anl\u0131k d\u00f6viz kuru hareketlerinin h\u0131z\u0131na eri\u015fmekte geri kalmaktad\u0131r.&nbsp; Yat\u0131r\u0131m sahiplerinin&nbsp;<strong>\u201cenflasyon\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;tehdidini hissetmeleri halinde faize y\u00f6nelmeleri; oradan da arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bulamamalar\u0131 halinde en kolay likit de\u011fer olarak d\u00f6vize atlamalar\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. Burada yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tercihi \u00f6ncelikle kazanmak y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir.&nbsp; Varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 korumak sonra gelir\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bir de \u00fclkenin genel yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde bor\u00e7luluk durumu ve ithal ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tetiklemekte ve&nbsp;<strong>s\u00fcrekli d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Birisine dokunman\u0131n her \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc de hareketlendirdi\u011fi bir ortam. Esas a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 gereken durum budur. Neden buraya m\u00fcdahale edildi? Ya da neden \u015fimdi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomi bilimi, taraflar \u015fikayet\u00e7i olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece,\u00a0<strong>d\u00f6viz kuru y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, y\u00fcksek faiz<\/strong>\u00a0verip,  kurun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesine bir \u015fey demez. O zaman kur d\u00fc\u015fecek, ithalat artacak yeniden <span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve bor\u00e7lanma <\/span>ile sarmal b\u00fcy\u00fcyecektir. Bu y\u00fczden ekonominin olan biteni a\u00e7\u0131klama yetene\u011fi, gelecek projeksiyonu ve ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatmaktan daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. \u201cNe oldu da b\u00f6yle oldu? denilirse, bir g\u00fczel anlat\u0131l\u0131r\u2026 Peki. \u201cYa bundan sonras\u0131?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O y\u00fczden temel s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131, bug\u00fcne ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bakarken, sonras\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn -kuru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in verilen y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayan&nbsp;<strong>faiz&nbsp;<\/strong>\u00f6nerisinin- sebep oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur sebebiyle, ithalat&nbsp; art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla&nbsp;<strong>cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong>&nbsp;konusunu tekrar h\u0131zland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ihmal edilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTav\u015fana ka\u00e7, taz\u0131ya tut.\u201d Sadece bir atas\u00f6z\u00fc de\u011fildir. Bug\u00fcn bu durum faiz ve kur aras\u0131nda tekrarlanmaktad\u0131r. Bunun i\u00e7in, faiz ve kurun daha dengeli seviyelerde tutulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 idealist yakla\u015f\u0131m siyasi m\u00fclahazalara kurban edilmektedir. Bu konuda haz\u0131rlanan programlar\u0131n anlat\u0131l\u0131r ve anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r yan\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Anlatan yoktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hepimizin bildi\u011fi gibi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu faiz seviyesi, \u015fu anda bile pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin \u00fcst\u00fcnde, y\u00fcksek iken&nbsp;<em><strong>\u201cver faizi, d\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn kur!\u201d<\/strong><\/em>&nbsp;beklentisi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi ba\u015fka \u00e7\u0131kmaza sokacakt\u0131r. Faize kar\u015f\u0131 y\u0131llard\u0131r sessizce piyasaya uyan bir \u00fclkenin bir de&nbsp;<strong>\u201dborcuna sad\u0131k\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;olmas\u0131 inan\u0131lmaz g\u00fczeldir. Bu y\u00fczden faize her dokunu\u015f,&nbsp;<strong>faiz getirisi bekleyenlere de dokunmak<\/strong>&nbsp;demektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye 2001 krizi sonras\u0131nda, cumhuriyetin kurulu\u015f d\u00f6neminin, \u015fu kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fct\u00fcn varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satarak, borcunu tasfiye edebilmi\u015ftir. Onlar bitti!.. Yeniden satacak o \u00e7apta de\u011ferler mevcut de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O halde, temelde\u00a0<strong>iki sorun<\/strong>\u00a0var:\u00a0\u00a0<strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u201cCari a\u00e7\u0131k ve bor\u00e7lanma.\u201d<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u0130kisi de d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azd\u0131ran bir durumdur. Bunlar\u0131n sebeplerini ortadan kald\u0131rmadan sadece kur ve faiz \u00fczerinden soruna \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aramak tansiyon hastas\u0131na, tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fme ve y\u00fckselme hallerinde ila\u00e7 vermek gibidir. Oysa bu sorunun arka plan\u0131nda k\u00f6t\u00fc beslenme, hareketsizlik, uyku bozuklu\u011fu stres, kilo vs pek \u00e7ok etken varken, bunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeden sadece ila\u00e7 \u00f6nerisi; bu g\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomiye\u00a0<strong>\u201cver faizi gitsin\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan ba\u015fka \u015fey de\u011fildir, y\u00f6-ne-ti-le-mez!..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu durumda sadece para politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 beklemek, yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. D\u00f6viz tevdiat hesaplar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam eder; Sorun, ilk f\u0131rsatta d\u00f6vize ka\u00e7\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve iyile\u015fme ihtimaline duyulan g\u00fcvensizliktir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomi rasyoneldir\u2026 Ger\u00e7ek ve t\u00fczel ki\u015filer, anl\u0131k ne kadar gelir elde etti\u011fi veya kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6rebilmektedir. Ve buna g\u00f6re de pozisyon alabilmektedir. Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir siyasi iktidar\u0131 destekleyen kesimlerde dahi rasyonellik ad\u0131na,&nbsp;<em><strong>\u201cparam\u0131z cebimizde eriyor!\u201d<\/strong><\/em>&nbsp;s\u00f6ylemiyle milli paradan&nbsp;<strong>d\u00f6vize ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f<\/strong>&nbsp;h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ekonominin alg\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131 ihmal edilmektedir.&nbsp;<strong>\u201cLirala\u015fma\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;s\u00f6ylemi \u00fczerinden anlat\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan budur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2021\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fi, indirilen\u00a0faiz\u00a0ve tetiklenen\u00a0d\u00f6viz\u00a0ile hat\u0131rlanacak. H\u0131zla artan yabanc\u0131 para mevduatlar\u0131 da\u00a0 bu d\u00f6nemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck sonucu olmaya aday.\u00a0 Kur ata\u011f\u0131, hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n merkezindeki yerini koruyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0\u201cafaki\u201d\u00a0y\u00fckseli\u015fler ge\u00e7se de\u00a0\u201co g\u00fcnler\u201d\u00a0unutulmu\u015f de\u011fil!..\u00a0 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve sabit gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck darbe yemi\u015f oldu. \u00d6nce k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir \u015fok olarak beklenen durumun devam etmesi, moralleri de olumsuz etkiledi. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[533,205,712,479,543,1,166,711],"tags":[537,225,1090],"class_list":["post-10827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buyume","category-dis-ticaret","category-dolarizasyon","category-enflasyon","category-faiz","category-genel","category-guncel","category-kriz","tag-borc","tag-faiz","tag-liralasma"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10827"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10827\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10829,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10827\/revisions\/10829"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}