{"id":10838,"date":"2022-03-15T23:07:40","date_gmt":"2022-03-15T23:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10838"},"modified":"2022-03-15T23:08:35","modified_gmt":"2022-03-15T23:08:35","slug":"stratejik-taktik-bir-faiz-hamlesi-simdi-degilse-ne-zaman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=10838","title":{"rendered":"Stratejik -Taktik Bir Faiz Hamlesi: \u015eimdi De\u011filse ne Zaman?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Operasyonel riskler artt\u0131. Maliyetleri de hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r bir seviyede&#8230; Ekonomi, Ukrayna-Rusya gerilimi ile savrulmaya devam ediyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn zamanlar\u0131n rekorlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r. D\u00fcnyadaki enflasyon de\u011ferleri alabildi\u011fine y\u00fckselmi\u015f\u2026 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, 2022 ilk ay\u0131ndaki cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131, \u00a02021\u2019in b\u00fct\u00fcn bir y\u0131l\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011ferini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bunun bir sonraki a\u015famas\u0131, 2022\u2019de y\u00fcksek bir finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fmas\u0131d\u0131r. Onun da en basit maliyeti,\u00a0<strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u201ckan kokusunu alm\u0131\u015f k\u00f6pek bal\u0131klar\u0131\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00f6rne\u011findeki gibidir: <span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong>y\u00fcksek faiz<\/strong><\/span>, ve <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">y\u00fcksek CDS<\/span><\/strong> rakamlar\u0131\u2026 \u00a0Faiz %1 bile olsa y\u00fcksek risk primleri y\u00fcz\u00fcnden 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir borcun maliyeti Her 3 milyar i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyar olacakt\u0131r. Bunun iler tutar bir yan\u0131 yoktur.\u00a0<strong><em>\u201cY\u00fcksek bedeller \u00f6denerek <span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">gelinen bu nokta<\/span>\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0diye ba\u015flayan t\u00fcm c\u00fcmleler\u00a0<strong><em>d\u00fcnde kalmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in %55 enflasyon ortam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiri \u00f6nermek, mali a\u00e7\u0131dan kabul edilebilir de\u011fildir. Ekonomi y\u00fcksek faiz getirisi ile bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fonlar i\u00e7in;\u00a0<strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u201cy\u00fcksek faiz \u00f6deyerek\u201d<\/span>\u00a0bor\u00e7lanmaktad\u0131r.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te faiz konusunda yapaca\u011f\u0131 her hamle stratejik olacakt\u0131r. Bunun iki etkisi fonlama yetene\u011finin artmas\u0131 ve\u00a0<strong><em>\u00a0\u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur\u201d<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0olarak kendini g\u00f6sterecektir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kurun hemen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmemelidir. K\u0131sa vadeli bir operasyon s\u00f6z konusu olamaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yap\u0131lacak \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullara uyum sa\u011flamakt\u0131r. Otobanda giden bir arac\u0131n, yolun bak\u0131ma al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 gibi bir sebepten dolay\u0131, girmek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0<strong>\u201cservis yolunda\u201d<\/strong>,\u00a0\u00a0o yolun \u015fartlar\u0131na g\u00f6re gitmesidir. Kimse servis yolundan, otoban performans\u0131 beklemesin. Maliye politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131 yeterince s\u00fcre\u00e7te etkili kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Art\u0131k para politikas\u0131n\u0131n da bu s\u00fcrece e\u015flik etmesi \u015fartt\u0131r. Faizler belirli bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in \u201c<strong><em>stratejik bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, kurun ve risk priminin ate\u015fini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00a0\u00a0Aksi halde politika faizi ile verilmeyen puanlar, bor\u00e7 faizleri ile katlanarak \u00f6denmeye devam edilecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n artarak devam etmesi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Halbuki 2021&nbsp;<strong><em>\u201cfaiz indirimi\u201d<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;program\u0131ndan beklenen, bug\u00fcne kadar mevcut \u201c<strong><em>sava\u015f riski<\/em><\/strong>\u201d d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131 ile uygulanan bir programd\u0131r. Beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olmu\u015ftur. &nbsp;\u00d6zellikle&nbsp;<strong>\u201ccari fazla\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;hedefli bir&nbsp;<strong>\u201c\u00fcretim ve ihracat\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;politikas\u0131 \u00fcmit vermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><strong>Ancak<\/strong><\/span> ya\u015fanan jeopolitik ve g\u00fcvenlikle ilgili olumsuzluklar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mevcut kararlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi zorunlulu\u011funu do\u011furmaktad\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7ta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131 o d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli iken; \u015fimdi yeniden bir pozisyonlama \u015fartt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, y\u00fcksek kur, y\u00fcksek ihracat, y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim, azalan i\u015fsizlik ve cari fazla plan\u0131,&nbsp;<em><strong>beklenenden \u00e7ok daha olumlu bir sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/em>&nbsp;do\u011furabilir. Ancak ithal edilen enflasyon ve maliyet enflasyonu \u00f6zellikle hammadde girdi fiyatlar\u0131ndaki do\u011falgaz ve petrol \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen astronomik y\u00fckseli\u015flerle birlikte ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon, evdeki hesab\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymamas\u0131 sonucunu do\u011furmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu siyasi bir <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">geri hamle de\u011fil<\/span><\/strong>;\u00a0 tam aksine ekonomik bir zorunluluk sebebiyle <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">&#8220;\u00f6n almad\u0131r&#8221;.<\/span><\/strong>  Siyaseten her \u015fey normalken yap\u0131lan bir \u015fey ile b\u00fct\u00fcn <strong>\u015fartlar  de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015fken\u2026<\/strong> Her \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015fken, kurallar de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015fken yap\u0131lan <strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">taktik bir hamle<\/span><\/strong> aras\u0131nda fark vard\u0131r. Yeni \u015fartlara, de\u011fi\u015fen kurallara adapte olman\u0131n bir gere\u011fi olarak\u00a0<strong><em><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u201cstratejik faiz politikas\u0131\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0derhal g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Operasyonel riskler artt\u0131. Maliyetleri de hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r bir seviyede&#8230; Ekonomi, Ukrayna-Rusya gerilimi ile savrulmaya devam ediyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn zamanlar\u0131n rekorlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r. D\u00fcnyadaki enflasyon de\u011ferleri alabildi\u011fine y\u00fckselmi\u015f\u2026 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, 2022 ilk ay\u0131ndaki cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131, \u00a02021\u2019in b\u00fct\u00fcn bir y\u0131l\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011ferini a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bunun bir sonraki a\u015famas\u0131, 2022\u2019de y\u00fcksek bir finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fmas\u0131d\u0131r. Onun [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10840,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[771,712,111,479,1,166,591],"tags":[225,1093],"class_list":["post-10838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cds","category-dolarizasyon","category-ekonomi","category-enflasyon","category-genel","category-guncel","category-para","tag-faiz","tag-para-politikasi-kurulu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10838"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10841,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10838\/revisions\/10841"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}