{"id":11116,"date":"2025-04-04T20:18:08","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T20:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=11116"},"modified":"2025-05-07T21:27:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T21:27:09","slug":"yuksek-enflasyon-yuksek-faiz-dusuk-kur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=11116","title":{"rendered":"Y\u00fcksek Enflasyon \u2013 Y\u00fcksek Faiz \u2013 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Kur"},"content":{"rendered":"<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Y\u00fcksek\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>faiz<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0oranlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek\u00a0<span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>enflasyonun<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0panzehiri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc son be\u015f y\u0131ldan bu yana, piyasalarda farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6neminde, y\u00fcksek faiz uygulayarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Beklenen y\u00fcksek faizin, t\u00fcketimi azaltaca\u011f\u0131 talebi k\u0131saca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. B\u00f6ylece fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi engellenmi\u015f olur. Ancak y\u00fcksek faiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ve \u00fcretimin \u00f6n\u00fcnde de engeldir. Finansman ihtiyac\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda da bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131ran y\u00fcksek faiz, maliyet enflasyonuna da sebep olabilir.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Bu y\u00fczden enflasyonun sebebini do\u011fru anlamak gerek. Talep ve maliyet enflasyonu olarak iki t\u00fcr enflasyonu dikkatli de\u011ferlendirmek gerek:<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Talep enflasyonu, talep fazlas\u0131 olan d\u00f6nemde, arz\u0131n da yetersiz kalmas\u0131 ile olu\u015fur:\u00a0<em><strong>para var, mal yok!\u2026<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0Haliyle fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi normalle\u015fir. Bu durumda, faizleri art\u0131rarak talebin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve halk\u0131n t\u00fcketim yerine tasarrufa y\u00f6nelmesi enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Maliyet enflasyonunda ise, \u00fcretim pahal\u0131 hale gelmi\u015ftir, asgari \u00fccret artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, faizler y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir, hammadde maliyetli hale gelmi\u015ftir, kiralar y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Sonu\u00e7ta \u00fcretim girdisine y\u00f6nelik bu art\u0131\u015flar, fiyatlara yans\u0131yarak enflasyonu tetikler. Enflasyonu e\u011fer maliyet k\u00f6kenli ise faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0<em><strong>yang\u0131na k\u00f6r\u00fckle gitmek<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0demektir. Artan finansman maliyetleri enflasyonu daha da y\u00fckseltir\u2026<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">O y\u00fczden enflasyonun sebebinin do\u011fru tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131 \u015fartt\u0131r. Uzun vadede, y\u00fcksek faizler enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de k\u0131sa vadede enflasyonu da y\u00fckseltebilir. Bu y\u00fczden ekonomi y\u00f6netimi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirlerken, ekonominin genel durumu ve enflasyonun sebepleri \u00fczerinde dikkatle durmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Y\u00fcksek faizin beklenen bir etkisi de\u00a0<strong>s\u0131cak para<\/strong>\u00a0giri\u015fi olu\u015fturmas\u0131d\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda dola\u015f\u0131mda olan ve y\u00fcksek getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki fonlar i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faiz cazibesini korumaktad\u0131r. Genellikle k\u0131sa vadeli ve y\u00fcksek kazan\u00e7 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bu fonlar, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde o \u00fclkeye y\u00f6nelir. Haliyle bu \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz kuru \u00fczerinde etkili olur.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">S\u0131cak para sahibi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, y\u00fcksek faizden veya kur farklar\u0131ndan getiri umarak, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine de olsa bir \u00fclkeye ya da \u00fclke paras\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparlar. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, elindeki d\u00f6vizi \u00fclke paras\u0131na \u00e7evirir; hazine bonosundan, borsaya veya faiz getirisi i\u00e7in bir banka hesab\u0131na yat\u0131rabilir. Bu likit say\u0131labilecek ve \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede nakite d\u00f6nebilecek alanlard\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece ilk anda <em><strong>d<\/strong><strong><em>\u00f6<\/em>viz kurlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer, milli para de\u011ferlenir.<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0Ancak her hangi bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k halinde fonlar h\u0131zla \u00fclkeyi terk eder, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda ani art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">D\u00f6viz kurunun d\u00fc\u015fmesinden hi\u00e7 memnun olmayan ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar ve turizmcilerin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131nda azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu y\u00fczden y\u00fcksek faiz ve s\u0131cak paray\u0131 sadece tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmemek gerekir. S\u0131cak para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n karma\u015f\u0131k ve\u00a0<strong>\u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisi<\/strong>\u00a0dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Yine de\u00a0<strong>\u201cy\u00fcksek faiz &#8211; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0politikas\u0131 yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7ekmek, \u00fclkeye s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi sa\u011flamak \u00fczerine kurgulan\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00f6viz kuru ithalat\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7ar. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 ve turizmci i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kazan\u00e7 istenen bir durum de\u011fildir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u00fcretilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan politikalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 rezervleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat \u00fcr\u00fcnleri olmas\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131na sahip olmak gerekir. Merkez Bankas\u0131 rezervlerindeki olumlu geli\u015fmeler, \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 finans \u00e7evreleri ile piyasalarda \u00fclkeye duyulan g\u00fcveni artt\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesindeki negatif rezerv seviyesinden bug\u00fcn 172 milyar dolara ula\u015fan seviyesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin verece\u011fi y\u00fcksek faizle, ne denli y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz giri\u015fini sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. Sadece se\u00e7imin \u00fczerinden 2 ay ge\u00e7meden\u00a0\u00a0Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda \u201c<em><strong>Merkez Bankas\u0131 rezervlerinin<\/strong><\/em> son iki ayda net 67 milyar dolar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201dna y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin potansiyelini g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Art\u0131k bundan sonra d\u00fczenli ve nitelikli rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131<strong> <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">y\u00fcksek faiz<\/span><\/strong> olmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Ekonominin \u00fcretim ve istihdam boyutunun dengeye girmesi refah\u0131n da kayna\u011f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u00fcksek\u00a0faiz\u00a0oranlar\u0131, y\u00fcksek\u00a0enflasyonun\u00a0panzehiri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc son be\u015f y\u0131ldan bu yana, piyasalarda farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6neminde, y\u00fcksek faiz uygulayarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Beklenen y\u00fcksek faizin, t\u00fcketimi azaltaca\u011f\u0131 talebi k\u0131saca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. B\u00f6ylece fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi engellenmi\u015f olur. Ancak y\u00fcksek faiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ve \u00fcretimin \u00f6n\u00fcnde de engeldir. Finansman ihtiyac\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda da bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131ran [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11177,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[546,543,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-butce","category-faiz","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11116"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11117,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11116\/revisions\/11117"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}