{"id":11129,"date":"2025-04-06T00:41:24","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T00:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=11129"},"modified":"2026-08-10T09:25:41","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T09:25:41","slug":"buyume-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=11129","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme &#8211; Enflasyon -Beklentiler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2024 B\u00fcy\u00fcme Rakamlar\u0131 y\u00fcz g\u00fcld\u00fcrd\u00fc. H\u00fckumet uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 program konusunda kararl\u0131. Bakan Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in \u201cX\u201d hesab\u0131 (<span style=\"color: #33cccc;\"><a style=\"color: #33cccc;\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/memetsimsek\">@memetsimsek<\/a><\/span>) \u00fczerinden payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberin alt\u0131na, <strong>enflasyon<\/strong>\u00a0ve <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/span> vurgusu yapan mesajlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn gerilemesi ile sabit ve dar gelirlinin \u00e7ok zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadad\u0131r. Ancak enflasyon ba\u015fta fiyat alg\u0131s\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar vermi\u015f durumdad\u0131r.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HaftalikEkonomi\/status\/1883053696575009154\/photo\/2\">A\u00e7g\u00f6zl\u00fc enflasyonu (<em>greedflasyon<\/em><\/a>)<\/span>\u00a0 denilen enflasyon ile fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na zarar verilmekte ve fiyat alg\u0131s\u0131 bozulmaktad\u0131r. En hassas konu \u00f6ncelikle fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve g\u00fcven ortam\u0131 yok edilmektedir. Bundan sonra kontrol, hepten elden gitmi\u015f olur.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye IMF&#8217;nin de d\u00fczenli kontrol\u00fcnden ge\u00e7en bir \u00fclkedir. \u00d6zellikle 1998 krizi sonras\u0131 IMF&#8217;ye y\u00f6neltilen su\u00e7lamalar\u00a0 nedeniyle kurulu\u015f, kontrollerini daha hassas s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir.\u00a0 Bu kasamda 2024&#8217;te<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> <a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/imf-turkiyenin-4-madde-raporunu-yayimladi-2359175\">4. Madde<\/a><\/span>\u00a0kapsam\u0131nda \u00fclkemizi ziyaret eden <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Home\">IMF<\/a> heyeti de olumlu izlenimlerle ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Onlar\u0131n da raporu A\u011fustos sonu itibariyle kamuoyu ile payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Heyet ba\u015fkan\u0131 J. Walsh, uygulanan ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomide etkili oldu\u011fu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin genel politikas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne vurgu yapm\u0131\u015f. Haliyle riskler ve kriz ihtimali \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunun arkas\u0131ndan g\u00fcven ortam\u0131 s\u00fcrecin iyile\u015fmesinde etkili olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum devam eden enflasyonist s\u00fcrecin gerilemesi ile kendini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 10 milyar dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/strong><\/span> bu konuda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yol al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH) % 2,6\u2019s\u0131 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oran i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a iyimser \u015feyler s\u00f6ylenebilir. Elbette T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bu oran umut vericidir. Hele ki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n %10\u2019lar seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerden bu g\u00fcnlere gelinen nokta, sevindiricidir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/\">TCMB<\/a>\u2018nin uluslararas\u0131 rezervleri 172 milyar dolara kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fse de son geli\u015fmelerle yeniden <strong>157 milyar ABD dolar <\/strong>seviyesine gerilemi\u015ftir. Bu tutar\u0131n, <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><strong>77 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0 alt\u0131n rezervleri olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada 2024 sonu itibariyle kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olumlu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n CDS \u00fczerindeki etkisi de IMF raporunda yer almaktad\u0131r. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 puanlar seviyesinden 250 puana d\u00fc\u015fen bir CDS i\u00e7in, bu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n da kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalmas\u0131 beklenemezdi. ilgili raporda bu konu\u00a0 <em>\u201c\u2026 440 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek ibaresiyle\u2026\u201d<\/em>\u00a0kayda ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon konusu da raporda \u00f6nceli\u011fini korumaktad\u0131r. Yaz aylar\u0131nda beklenen etkinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fine de dikkat \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir. Finansal sekt\u00f6rlerin politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na verdi\u011fi destek ve stressiz ge\u00e7i\u015f de raporda olumlu olarak yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/imf.org\/\">IMF<\/a> heyetinin y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi, beklentiler do\u011frultusunda %44,4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 da IMF beklentileri ile uyumlu ilerlemektedir. GSYH 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de % 3 gibi bekledi\u011fini belirtmi\u015f, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ise %3,2 olmu\u015ftur. B\u00f6ylece, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beridir \u00fcst \u00fcste 17 \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcven endeksleri ekonominin nabz\u0131 gibidir. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de Mart 2025 itibariyle <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/strong><\/span> 100 puan\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu seviyenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinde <strong>Hizmet<\/strong> G\u00fcven Endeksi (114) ve <strong>Perakende<\/strong> G\u00fcven Endeksi (113) \u2019nin etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.\u00a0 <strong>\u0130n\u015faat<\/strong> (89) ve <strong>T\u00fcketici<\/strong> G\u00fcven Endeksi (86) olarak \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcven Endekslerinde her ne kadar gerilerde seyretse de in\u015faat y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na sahiptir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda Tar\u0131m, 2024&#8217;te %3,9, \u0130n\u015faat %9,3, Finans ve Sigorta %5, Sanayi %0,5 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Katma de\u011fer i\u00e7erisinde sermayenin pay\u0131 %47; Eme\u011fin pay\u0131 ise %35 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2024 B\u00fcy\u00fcme Rakamlar\u0131 y\u00fcz g\u00fcld\u00fcrd\u00fc. H\u00fckumet uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 program konusunda kararl\u0131. Bakan Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in \u201cX\u201d hesab\u0131 (@memetsimsek) \u00fczerinden payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberin alt\u0131na, enflasyon\u00a0ve hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgusu yapan mesajlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn gerilemesi ile sabit ve dar gelirlinin \u00e7ok zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadad\u0131r. Ancak enflasyon ba\u015fta fiyat alg\u0131s\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar vermi\u015f durumdad\u0131r.\u00a0 A\u00e7g\u00f6zl\u00fc enflasyonu (greedflasyon)\u00a0 denilen enflasyon ile fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[533,771,111,462,543,1,758,454,591],"tags":[1115,221,1148,455],"class_list":["post-11129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buyume","category-cds","category-ekonomi","category-enerji","category-faiz","category-genel","category-hayvancilik","category-insaat-konut","category-para","tag-gida-guvenligi","tag-guven-endeksi","tag-imf-4-madde","tag-insaat"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11129"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11189,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11129\/revisions\/11189"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}