{"id":8014,"date":"2014-11-06T08:16:45","date_gmt":"2014-11-06T08:16:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8014"},"modified":"2016-06-19T13:39:30","modified_gmt":"2016-06-19T13:39:30","slug":"enflasyon-iner-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8014","title":{"rendered":"ENFLASYON \u0130NER M\u0130?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ekonomide b\u00fct\u00fcn k\u00f6t\u00fcl\u00fcklerin anas\u0131n\u0131n <strong>\u201cenflasyon\u201d <\/strong>oldu\u011funa dair emareler y\u00fckselmeye\u00a0 ba\u015flad\u0131. Orta Vadeli Program\u0131n da hareket noktas\u0131 ve ana oda\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon, fiyatlar\u0131n beklenen ya da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen durumdan fazla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halidir. Haliyle bu fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn\u00fcn karma\u015f\u0131k ekonomilerinde bir elinde kur, \u00f6teki elinde faiz y\u00f6ntemiyle de\u011fi\u015fmesi\u00a0 o kadar kolay g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ba\u015fl\u0131ca Hane halk\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri i\u00e7erisinde say\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 unsurdan olan <strong><em>g\u0131da, bar\u0131nma ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma<\/em><\/strong>n\u0131n enflasyona etkisi her zaman tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 On y\u0131llar kadar \u00f6nce rahmetli ba\u015fbakanlar\u0131m\u0131zdan B\u00fclent Ecevit d\u00f6neminde kiralar %25 oran\u0131nda sabit tutularak enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi durdurulmak istenmi\u015fti, Ancak o g\u00fcnk\u00fc tecr\u00fcbelerimizle bunun ba\u015fka t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7atlak-patlak geli\u015fmelere yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015fahit olmu\u015ftuk.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130ktisat teorisinin ilk \u00f6\u011fretilen konular\u0131ndan olan gelir artt\u0131k\u00e7a \u201cekmek\u201d gibi temel g\u0131dalar\u0131n t\u00fcketim miktar\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 konusu bug\u00fcn enflasyon sepeti i\u00e7in de tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bireyler ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hanelerin artan geliri nedeniyle g\u0131da \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin harcamalar i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 azalmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Enflasyon hesaplamalar\u0131nda dahi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hesaplamalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck etkiler do\u011furdu\u011fu ya da verilerde, virg\u00fclden sonraki de\u011ferlerin dahi psikolojik etkisinin artarak \u00f6nemsendi\u011fi g\u00fcnlerden ge\u00e7mekteyiz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Enflasyon sepetinde b\u00fct\u00fcn Avrupa \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda Romanya\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %24,6\u2019l\u0131k paya sahip olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de g\u0131dan\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ciddi ciddi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Son 10 y\u0131lda \u00f6zellikle gelir d\u00fczeyinde b\u00fcy\u00fck ilerleme kaydeden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bireysel gelirler artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Harcama kapasitesi geni\u015fledi, harcanabilir potansiyeli ve harcama yap\u0131lacak alanlarda bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k ve geli\u015fme ya\u015fand\u0131. Dememiz o ki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu artan gelir d\u00fczeyi ve farkl\u0131la\u015fan harcama \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fine m\u00fctenasip olarak enflasyon sepetinde de g\u0131dan\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. B\u00fct\u00fcn geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7 budur: Gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131na uyumlu olarak \u00f6nce g\u0131daya harcam\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131 pay azal\u0131r, sonra di\u011fer t\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin pay\u0131 artar. Mesela AB\u2019de enflasyon sepetinde g\u0131da, alkol ve t\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam pay\u0131 %19,76\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu y\u00fczden do\u011fru \u00f6l\u00e7me ve de\u011ferlendirme, do\u011fru parametreler \u00fcretme ve istenen hedeflere ula\u015fma konusu ekonominin de \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. Enflasyonla ba\u015f edilmeli ki faiz-kur ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme gibi di\u011fer g\u00f6stergelerin etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fcls\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ekim sonu itibariyle ABD\u2019nin tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi ekonominin fonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n biti\u015fini g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6zellikle son 6 senedir 1,6 trilyon dolar\u0131 bulan piyasay\u0131 dolara doyurma politikas\u0131 sona erdi. Bunun elbette para k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalarda farkl\u0131 limanlara \u00e7ekilme iste\u011fini do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bu para \u00e7ekilmesinin enflasyona etkisi de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Uzun aylar boyunca devam eden fon giri\u015finin Ekim 2013\u2019ten itibaren ayl\u0131k bazda azalt\u0131larak devam eden dolar s\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn etkileri g\u00f6zlenmelidir. Bunun tek arac\u0131 dolar\u0131 \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmak olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmemelidir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcrkiye gibi tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek, ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler, y\u0131llard\u0131r kolay tatl\u0131 para sayesinde y\u00f6netebildi Bu y\u00fczden herkesin dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi ve milli gelirin %8\u2019ine kadar y\u00fckselen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sayede yol kazas\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n atlatabildi ve a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n fonlanmas\u0131nda zorlanmad\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 fonlamak yeni d\u00f6nemde eskisi kadar kolay olmayabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 beklentilerin gerisinde kalmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ideal b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %5\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmemelidir. Ancak 2012\u2019de %2,1, 2013\u2019te %4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen T\u00fcrkiye, 2014\u2019te % 3,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcrse sevinecek durumday\u0131z. Bir yandan i\u015fsizli\u011fin de \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn al\u0131nmas\u0131na mani bu rakamlar i\u00e7in yeni g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeler ve yap\u0131sal m\u00fcdahaleler \u015fart hale gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomide b\u00fct\u00fcn k\u00f6t\u00fcl\u00fcklerin anas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cenflasyon\u201d oldu\u011funa dair emareler y\u00fckselmeye\u00a0 ba\u015flad\u0131. Orta Vadeli Program\u0131n da hareket noktas\u0131 ve ana oda\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon, fiyatlar\u0131n beklenen ya da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen durumdan fazla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halidir. Haliyle bu fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn\u00fcn karma\u015f\u0131k ekonomilerinde bir elinde kur, \u00f6teki elinde faiz y\u00f6ntemiyle de\u011fi\u015fmesi\u00a0 o kadar kolay g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca Hane halk\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri i\u00e7erisinde [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[111,1],"tags":[189,190,191,188],"class_list":["post-8014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-genel","tag-buyume-orani","tag-enflasyon","tag-iktisat-teorisi","tag-tasarruf-acigi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8014"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8014\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8145,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8014\/revisions\/8145"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}