2016 i\u00e7in g\u00fczel \u015feyler s\u00f6yleyelim derken Kuzey Kore\u2019nin n\u00fckleer deneme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberi hem siyaset hem de ekonomi g\u00fcndemine bomba gibi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Zaten jeo-politik ve teo-politik riskler bizi yeterince tedirgin ederken dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 hareketini izlemekteyiz. D\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini hala geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekte. T\u00fcrkiye bu hengamede 2016 i\u00e7in %4 rakam bazl\u0131 ama ger\u00e7ekte niyeti %5 \u2018i zorlamak istiyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan %7,5, \u00c7in %6,5, Latinler %2,5, T\u00fcrkiye %3-4\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle ba\u015flad\u0131. Tabiidir ki bunlar\u0131n da birtak\u0131m verilere dayanmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu. Avrupa durgun. Petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkeler yava\u015flad\u0131. Libya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretici olarak piyasaya girmesi, mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n $30 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131na da engel olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran-Suudi kavgas\u0131nda Suudilerin petrol \u00fcretimini artt\u0131rma niyeti fiyatlar\u0131 daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Bu, sadece petrolden gelir elde eden \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yeni bir kriz demek.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya ticareti yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Herkes bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerine konu\u015fuyor. Ancak bir ger\u00e7ek var ki ticaret y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor, el de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Bat\u0131 ve ABD merkezli ticaret ba\u015fta \u00c7in ve Hindistan olmak \u00fczere do\u011fuya do\u011fru kaymaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye bu ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndad\u0131r. \u0130hracat $140-160 milyar band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Oysa doymu\u015f i\u00e7 piyasadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p yeni d\u0131\u015f pazarlara a\u00e7\u0131lman\u0131n, de\u011fer zincirinde y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fcretmenin ve bunu satabilmenin bir yolu bulunmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G20 Antalya Zirvesi\u2019nde ticaret konu\u015fuldu ancak ticareti k\u0131s\u0131tlayan unsurlar, \u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00fcvenlik engelleri daha \u00e7ok konu\u015fuldu. \u00c7evremizde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin karayolu mesafesinde Irak, Rusya, I\u015e\u0130D ve di\u011fer g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131 ise \u201ccambaza bak\u201d kabilinden yer ald\u0131. Son 30 y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00fcnya ticareti verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; ilk 20 y\u0131l %7, sonraki 10 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019l\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden s\u00f6z edilebilir. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda do\u011fu eksenli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmedir. Avrupa ticaret verileri 2008 krizi sonras\u0131 gerilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Birli\u011fi ile yeniden bahar havas\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131lan 17. Fas\u0131l \u201cEkonomik ve Parasal Birlik\u201d konular\u0131n\u0131 kapsamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle fiyat istikrar\u0131 konusu birlik ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. T\u00fcrkiye isteklidir. AB yeniden \u00e7\u0131pa olmaya devam edecek gibidir. Kamu g\u00f6stergeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sorun olmamakla birlikte \u00f6zellikle \u00f6demeler dengesi ile ba\u015flayan cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu ciddiye al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Neredeyse bir y\u0131ld\u0131r beklenen FED\u2019in faiz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 gelmi\u015f, TCMB de bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyatla kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Faizde \u201cbekle g\u00f6r\u201d yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir tutum sergilenmektedir. D\u00f6viz de makul sevilerdedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 g\u00fcndemi \u201cnitelikli alt yap\u0131 ve nitelikli \u00fcr\u00fcn\u201d odakl\u0131d\u0131r. \u00dcr\u00fcn ve \u00fcretim kadar sevkiyat\/ lojistik \u00f6nemini koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
2016 i\u00e7in g\u00fczel \u015feyler s\u00f6yleyelim derken Kuzey Kore\u2019nin n\u00fckleer deneme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberi hem siyaset hem de ekonomi g\u00fcndemine bomba gibi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Zaten jeo-politik ve teo-politik riskler bizi yeterince tedirgin ederken dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 hareketini izlemekteyiz. D\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini hala geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekte. T\u00fcrkiye bu hengamede 2016 i\u00e7in %4 rakam bazl\u0131 ama ger\u00e7ekte niyeti %5 \u2018i zorlamak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[111,1,166],"tags":[202,174,185,199,204,203,200,201],"class_list":["post-8031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-genel","category-guncel","tag-avrupa-birligi","tag-dunya-ticareti","tag-fed","tag-jeo-politik","tag-lojistik","tag-tcmb","tag-teo-politik","tag-ticaret-yollari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8031"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8031\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8225,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8031\/revisions\/8225"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}