{"id":8426,"date":"2017-01-17T23:29:37","date_gmt":"2017-01-17T23:29:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8426"},"modified":"2017-01-17T23:45:42","modified_gmt":"2017-01-17T23:45:42","slug":"gelir-ne-ki-tasarruf-olsun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8426","title":{"rendered":"Gelir Ne ki Tasarruf Olsun!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6nce Gezi olaylar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 17\/25 Aral\u0131k s\u00fcreci derken, \u00fclke <strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131<\/span><\/strong> hem risk hem de ekonominin tansiyonunu y\u00fckseltti. Ekonominin faiz bask\u0131s\u0131, d\u00f6vizin y\u00fckselen ate\u015fi, envai \u00e7e\u015fit, de\u011fi\u015fime d\u00fcnden haz\u0131r &#8220;de\u011fi\u015fken&#8221;i harekete ge\u00e7irdi. Kur, faiz derken haf\u0131zalar\u0131m\u0131z bizi birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>2014 y\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 tarihi bir karar ald\u0131: 29 Ocak saat 00.00\u2019da politika faizini %4,5\u2019ten %10\u2019a y\u00fckseltti. \u00a0Bu art\u0131\u015f, b\u00fct\u00fcn dengeleri sarsan ve uzun zamandan sonra ilk defa \u201c<strong>faiz kalkan\u0131\u201d<\/strong>n\u0131n bu kadar net ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir operasyondur. Sonras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyada faiz oranlar\u0131nda sert tepkiler g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Mesela Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131 da sene sonunda %10,25 olan faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 %17\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de, k\u0131saca bug\u00fcnlere geli\u015fin hikayesine bakal\u0131m. Malum ihracat yetersiz. \u0130thalat artm\u0131\u015f; sonu\u00e7 2013\u2019te 100 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilmi\u015ftir. Bunun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir yan\u0131 yok. Yani T\u00fcrkiye, s\u00fcrekli d\u00f6viz giri\u015fine muhta\u00e7 bir \u00fclke haline gelmi\u015f. Bu d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli sebep olarak hep <strong>&#8220;enerji, otomotiv, elektronikler, sigara-alkol,<\/strong> hatta <strong>cep telefonu ve t\u0131bbi \u00fcr\u00fcnler<\/strong> say\u0131l\u0131verir. \u0130thal \u00fcr\u00fcnler yerine yerli sanayi \u00fcretiminin te\u015fvik edilmesi konusunda, d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem <strong>Acil Eylem Planlar\u0131 <\/strong>gibi pek \u00e7ok \u00f6nlem g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015ftir. Ancak sadece tek bir g\u00fcndeme odaklanamayan bir \u00fclke olarak, bunlar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmam\u0131\u015f ve kal\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar al\u0131namam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcretim i\u00e7in kaynaklar\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irmek \u015fartt\u0131r. \u0130\u00e7 tasarruflar\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in de yabanc\u0131 kaynak giri\u015fini zorunlu k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Yabanc\u0131 kaynaklar bir yandan \u00fcretim di\u011fer yandan t\u00fcketim i\u00e7in zaruri olmu\u015ftur.\u00a0 Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015funca, ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131n paras\u0131na muhta\u00e7 olman\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fc yan\u0131, faizi\/fiyat\u0131\/maliyeti onlar\u0131n belirliyor olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Nihayetinde <strong>Alt\u0131n\u0131 olan kural\u0131 koyuyor. <\/strong>\u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulan bu d\u00f6viz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenli ve s\u00fcrekli olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ekilebilmesi i\u00e7in hem hukuki hem de psikolojik \u015fartlar gereklidir. Ya da \u00fclkenin d\u00f6vize muhta\u00e7 olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilecektir. Onun i\u00e7in temel mesele ya <strong>ithal \u00fcr\u00fcn t\u00fcketilmeyecek, ya da ithal \u00fcr\u00fcn yerine yerlisi <\/strong>talep edilir olacak.\u00a0 Bu da t\u00fcketici talepleri ile yak\u0131ndan ilgilidir ki T\u00fcrk halk\u0131na pek uyan bir durum de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Yeniden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yetersiz olu\u015funa gelecek olursak; ihracat i\u00e7in \u00fcretim gerekli; \u00fcretim i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131m ve yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in de para laz\u0131m. Buraya gelince durmak zorunda kal\u0131yoruz. Para dedi\u011fimiz \u015fey \u00f6zkaynaklarla olu\u015fturulam\u0131yor ve \u00a0yurt i\u00e7inden temin edilemiyorsa, <strong>tasarruflar yetmiyor <\/strong>demektir ve \u00fclke i\u00e7i kaynaklar bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layamamaktad\u0131r. \u00dcstelik yurt i\u00e7inden temin edilemeyen kaynaklar i\u00e7in\u00a0 <strong>\u201cba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n paralar\u0131na, birikimlerine muhta\u00e7 durumda bir \u00fclke\u201d<\/strong> oldu\u011fumuz anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclke i\u00e7i <strong>\u201cyat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u201d<\/strong> i\u00e7in kaynak temin etmenin yolu tasarruflard\u0131r. \u00dclke i\u00e7i tasarruflar ne kadar fazla olursa yat\u0131r\u0131mlara da o denli kaynak temin etmenin yolu kolayla\u015f\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in tasarruf gerekli. Merkez Bankas\u0131 yukar\u0131da bahsi ge\u00e7en faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131n\u0131 alana kadar tasarruflar\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n, %11-13 aras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bilinmekteydi. \u00dclke olarak gereken kalk\u0131nma d\u00fczeyini yakalayabilmemiz i\u00e7in olmas\u0131 gereken yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 %20 seviyelerinde olmal\u0131 ki yerli kaynaklarla bekledi\u011fimiz kalk\u0131nma hamlesini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilelim. Aradaki bu 7-8 puanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k hep d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan \u00fclkemize d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi i\u00e7in zorunlu olarak temin edilmesi gereken kaynak anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. D\u00f6viz giri\u015finde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz \u00e7ekmenin yollar\u0131 aranmaktad\u0131r. Ekonomi i\u00e7in \u201c<strong>d\u00f6viz yok\u201d<\/strong> ifadesinin maliyeti \u00e7ok y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden zaman zaman bu tasarruflar\u0131 artt\u0131rman\u0131n yollar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Yine fiyat istikrar\u0131ndan sorumlu bir kurum olarak da Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu konuda 3 y\u0131l \u00f6nce bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapar. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n <strong>tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong> 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar olan d\u00f6nemde <strong>3,6 puan artaca\u011f\u0131<\/strong> y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. 2025 &#8211; 2050 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise tasarruflar\u0131n<strong> 7,61 puan artmas\u0131<\/strong> beklenmektedir. Bu hesapla konunun ba\u015f\u0131nda belirtilen %20\u2019lik tasarruf miktar\u0131 yakalanm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131l\u0131rken g\u00f6zlemlenen verilerde e\u011fitimin, n\u00fcfusun <strong>ya\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131n, finansal okur yazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131<\/strong>n artmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Tasarruf s\u00f6zkonusu olunca gelir seviyesini de ihmal etmeyelim. Ama \u015fimdilik, gelirin k\u0131ymetin bilir olmak do\u011fru bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6nce Gezi olaylar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 17\/25 Aral\u0131k s\u00fcreci derken, \u00fclke k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 hem risk hem de ekonominin tansiyonunu y\u00fckseltti. Ekonominin faiz bask\u0131s\u0131, d\u00f6vizin y\u00fckselen ate\u015fi, envai \u00e7e\u015fit, de\u011fi\u015fime d\u00fcnden haz\u0131r &#8220;de\u011fi\u015fken&#8221;i harekete ge\u00e7irdi. Kur, faiz derken haf\u0131zalar\u0131m\u0131z bizi birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 tarihi bir karar ald\u0131: 29 Ocak saat 00.00\u2019da politika faizini %4,5\u2019ten [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8427,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[281,111,283,1,166],"tags":[246,225,416,267,437,436],"class_list":["post-8426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basin","category-ekonomi","category-gazete","category-genel","category-guncel","tag-cari-acik","tag-faiz","tag-kur","tag-tasarruf","tag-tasarruflarin-arttirilmasi","tag-yatirim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8426"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8426\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8428,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8426\/revisions\/8428"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8427"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}