{"id":8492,"date":"2017-04-08T09:16:52","date_gmt":"2017-04-08T09:16:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8492"},"modified":"2020-11-22T12:25:38","modified_gmt":"2020-11-22T12:25:38","slug":"ekonomiden-tansiyon-almak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8492","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomiden Tansiyon Almak"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomi de\u011ferlendirmeleri borsa \u2013 kur <\/strong>ve<\/span> faiz<\/strong><\/span> sarmal\u0131nda d\u00f6nmektedir. Asl\u0131nda bu \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterge sonu\u00e7tur<\/strong>. Her\u015feyin yolunda oldu\u011fu bir ekonomi i\u015fleyi\u015finde bu g\u00f6stergelerden \u00f6nce ki\u015filerdeki gibi kendini,\u00a0\u201ciyi hissetme\u201d<\/strong> ya da \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc hissetme\u201d<\/strong> hali ekonomide de g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Buna sekt\u00f6rlerden gelen haberler, \u00fcretim ve istihdam\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131, ihracat\u0131n niteli\u011fi ya da ithal ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k seviyeleri ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve eklendi\u011fi takdirde, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011fru bir te\u015fhis ve tan\u0131mlama ortaya konulmu\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki para ve maliye politikalar\u0131na dair analizlerin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sebep, sonu\u00e7, s\u00fcre\u00e7 ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Devletin ekonomideki etkinli\u011fi ve varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma ya da s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma fikri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda analizlerin mutlak surette birtak\u0131m sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck vergi tahsilat\u0131 varsa; harcamalar s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r, b\u00fct\u00e7enin denk b\u00fct\u00e7e olmas\u0131 beklenir; bor\u00e7lanma varsa y\u00f6netilebilir vade ve faiz politikas\u0131 hedeflenir. Hangi harcamalar\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli<\/strong><\/span>, hangilerinin \u00f6nemli<\/strong> <\/span>oldu\u011fu bu itibarla ayr\u0131 bir \u00f6zen gerektirir.<\/p>\n

Refah devleti olu\u015fturmak ve uygulamalar\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rmak, \u00f6zellikle sosyal demokrat y\u00f6netimlerin \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131nda yer alabilir. Haliyle devlet, sosyal harcamalar i\u00e7in finansman tercihini bor\u00e7lanma<\/strong>dan yana yapt\u0131ysa, hem kamu finansman\u0131 hem de bireylerin t\u00fcketim talepleri i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizi savunur.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle politika uygulay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n tercihlerini analiz eden akademik \u00e7evrelerin \u00fcretti\u011fi rapor ve literat\u00fcrdeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, bu politikalara y\u00f6n vermede \u00f6nemlidir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de nerede ise T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131dan daha fazla yabanc\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131 ad\u0131n\u0131 sayabilen kesimler, ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada bir miktar kabahati, geri geri durma konusunda meslekta\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z ve \u00fcniversitelere y\u00fcklemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

En kolay analiz y\u00f6ntemi, finans piyasas\u0131 analizidir: Borsa, kur ve faiz sarmal\u0131ndan s\u00f6z etmektir ki \u00a0bu durum adeta tansiyon<\/strong><\/span> almak gibidir. De\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr, makul seviyelerde ise ona g\u00f6re; de\u011filse ba\u015fka t\u00fcrl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ile g\u00f6zlem sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131r. Bunda \u00fcretim, t\u00fcketim, istihdam, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131<\/em><\/strong> gibi temel g\u00f6stergeler yoktur. Varsa yoksa FED, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) hatta ABD\u2019deki nisbeten \u00f6nemsiz bir g\u00f6sterge bile saatlerce yoruma tabi tutularak, dinleyicinin beyni yorulmaktad\u0131r. Bazen, ABD\u2019nin bir b\u00f6lgesindeki konut sat\u0131\u015f say\u0131s\u0131, bazen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri bile bu g\u00fcndeme kar\u0131\u015fabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de uzun y\u0131llar \u201ckamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00e7eken\u201d <\/strong>iktidarlar\u0131n var olu\u015fu, kamunun m\u00fcdahaleci yap\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekimser, hatta kar\u015f\u0131t bir pozisyon al\u0131r yap\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. Son 2001 program\u0131na referans olan 2001 ve 2002 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131<\/strong><\/span> milli gelir i\u00e7erisinde %12 rakam\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde AB \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda bu oran %1,5-2,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda idi. Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rev zarar<\/strong><\/span>lar\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 %16 idi. Sosyal G\u00fcvenlik kurumlar\u0131na b\u00fct\u00e7e transferinin de milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2018ler seviyesinde olmas\u0131, asl\u0131nda, aktif kamu politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n da bu alana girmesine mani olmu\u015ftur. Keynesyen uygulamalar artm\u0131\u015f ama bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 bilen ve analiz eden say\u0131s\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sanki devletin, \u00f6zellikle sosyal harcama yanl\u0131s\u0131 e\u011filimlerini analiz etmek \u201cfakir f\u0131karaya giden \u00fc\u00e7 kuru\u015f paraya g\u00f6z dikmek\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/span> olarak alg\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, gayrimenkul ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc dedi\u011finde \u00fclkeyi \u201cin\u015faat \u00e7ukuruna g\u00f6mecek\u201d<\/strong> neandertallerin\u00a0 \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f\u0131;<\/strong> tar\u0131m diye s\u00f6ze ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, end\u00fcstri 4.0 <\/span><\/strong><\/em>i\u00e7in yap\u0131lacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlara mani olacak bir gerici yobaz muamelesi g\u00f6rmektedir.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi bir b\u00fct\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Sadece sonu\u00e7lara odaklanman\u0131n istenmedik yan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve zararlar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00fczden finans piyasalar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerin \u00f6ncesini analiz etmenin \u00f6nemine tekrar dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015f olal\u0131m. . \u0130nsan v\u00fccudunun birtak\u0131m rahats\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 nas\u0131l ki tansiyon ve tahlillerle ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorsa;
\nsadece y\u00fcksek tansiyonu s\u00f6ylemek, moral bozman\u0131n ya da “normal” deyip; her \u015fey yolundaym\u0131\u015f gibi yapman\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7emez. Araz devam eder.
\nTekrardan, ekonomi bir b\u00fct\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Sadece neticeye bakmak yan\u0131lt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomi de\u011ferlendirmeleri borsa \u2013 kur ve faiz sarmal\u0131nda d\u00f6nmektedir. Asl\u0131nda bu \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterge sonu\u00e7tur. Her\u015feyin yolunda oldu\u011fu bir ekonomi i\u015fleyi\u015finde bu g\u00f6stergelerden \u00f6nce ki\u015filerdeki gibi kendini,\u00a0\u201ciyi hissetme\u201d ya da \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc hissetme\u201d hali ekonomide de g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Buna sekt\u00f6rlerden gelen haberler, \u00fcretim ve istihdam\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131, ihracat\u0131n niteli\u011fi ya da ithal ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k seviyeleri ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8493,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,111,1,166,454],"tags":[461,417,110,459,225,460,455,413,416],"class_list":["post-8492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akademi","category-ekonomi","category-genel","category-guncel","category-insaat-konut","tag-borsa","tag-doviz","tag-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi-teorisi","tag-faiz","tag-finans","tag-insaat","tag-keynes","tag-kur"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8492"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10581,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8492\/revisions\/10581"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}