{"id":8622,"date":"2017-10-26T22:41:21","date_gmt":"2017-10-26T22:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8622"},"modified":"2017-10-27T00:01:31","modified_gmt":"2017-10-27T00:01:31","slug":"buyume-rakamlarini-nasil-okuyalim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8622","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme Rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l Okuyal\u0131m?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcmede, 2010-2017 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda %6 rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6lgesel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klar, yurt i\u00e7i \u00e7alkant\u0131lar, g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ile beraber b\u00fcy\u00fcy\u00fcp serpilen risklerdir. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara ra\u011fmen baz\u0131 tablolar var ki milletlerin hayat\u0131nda unutulmazlar aras\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131r:<strong>\u00a0\u201cC\u00dcMHUR\u0130YET\u0130 B\u0130Z B\u00d6YLE KAZANDIK&#8221;<\/strong>\u00a0tablosu da bu foto\u011fraflardan birisidir. \u00dclkenin hangi <strong>badireler<\/strong>den ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, nelerle <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>m\u00fccadele<\/strong><\/span> etti\u011fi, <strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00e7ekilenler<\/span><\/strong> ve ard\u0131ndan <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>felaha erme<\/strong><\/span> d\u00f6nemleri de asl\u0131nda bu foto\u011fraf\u0131n renklerine ve ki\u015filerine, hatta mekanlar\u0131na bile sinmi\u015ftir.: Ama g\u00f6zlerdeki <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">umut<\/span><\/strong> hi\u00e7 gitmemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Hakikaten bu tablo, onca ya\u015fanan olumsuzluklara inat,\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>&#8220;var\u0131z&#8221;<\/strong><\/span> diyebilmektedir. \u015eu da ihmal edilmemelidir ki sava\u015fla ele ge\u00e7irilemeyen \u00fclkelerin, ekonomik sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015ftir. Hele ki haf\u0131zas\u0131nda, imparatorluklar kurmu\u015f olan T\u00fcrkiye gibi bir \u00fclkeyi dize getirmek ya da hepten\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131<\/strong><\/span> k\u0131lmak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir.\u00a0 Umutsuzluk pompalamak, <strong>k\u00fcsk\u00fcnler, ma\u011fluplar, eziklerden m\u00fcte\u015fekkil bir topluluk<\/strong> haline getirmek \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir.\u00a0 <em><strong>&#8220;\u00c7al\u0131\u015f \u00e7al\u0131\u015f bir\u015fey olmuyor&#8221;<\/strong><\/em> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi; y\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131k, bezginlik gibi yolsuzluk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tavan yapmas\u0131,\u00a0<strong>gayrete<\/strong> de dokunacakt\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerine m\u00fcdahaleler dahi yap\u0131labilmektedir. Ancak ekonomik anlamda y\u0131k\u0131lmak ve ele ge\u00e7irilmek istenen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in de baz\u0131 verilere m\u00fcdahaleler olabilir. Bu arada riski artar, maliyetleri y\u00fckselir: d\u00f6viz &#8211; faiz f\u0131rlar&#8230; bu bizim i\u00e7in sorun, onlar i\u00e7in fark etmez, istedikleri budur: Bunda son \u00f6rnek, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ile ilgili olanlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ekim 2016&#8217;da, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %3 olarak belirleyen <a href=\"http:\/\/imf.org\">IMF<\/a>, Nisan 2017&#8217;de bu rakam\u0131 2,5&#8217;e indirmi\u015fti. Ekim 2017 raporunda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %5,1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.\u00a0 &#8220;Y\u00fckselen ve Geli\u015fen Avrupa&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu \u00fclke grubundaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye ili\u015fkin pozitif beklentilere paralel olarak h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. &#8220;<strong>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ihracat\u0131 2016&#8217;n\u0131n son ve 2017&#8217;nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparland\u0131<\/strong>&#8221; ifadesine yer verdi.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrk mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebin, Avro B\u00f6lgesindeki olumlu beklentilerle artabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Bu y\u00fczden IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n pe\u015fpe\u015fe T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2017 ve 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 revize ederek y\u00fckseltmi\u015f oldu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergelerini \u0130lk olarak IMF d\u00fczeltme gere\u011fi duymu\u015ftur. Dikkat \u00e7ekici olan, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeltilmesi de\u011fil, iki kat\u0131na varan oranlarda d\u00fczeltmenin yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ise olay\u0131n daha fark\u0131na varamam\u0131\u015f olmal\u0131 ki onlar da y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %4 d\u00fczeyinde belirlemi\u015f oldu. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin \u00e7ok heyecanla kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu geli\u015fmeler, yetkililerin daha y\u00fcksek rakamlar hedeflemesinin ve belirlemesinin de \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u043er\u0430nl\u0430r\u0131nd\u0430 ihr\u0430c\u0430ttaki art\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkili oldu. <\/strong>Eyl\u00fcl ihracat rakamlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam etti\u011fi ve bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re % 8,67 oran\u0131nda \u0430rt\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Elbette T\u00fcrkiye gibi ihracat\u0131 ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in, ihracat artarken ithalat\u0131n durmas\u0131 beklenemez, \u00f6yle de oldu\u2026\u00a0 Ayn\u0131 oranlarda ithalat da artm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bilindi\u011fi gibi ihracat amac\u0131yla, y\u0430r\u0131 m\u0430mul \u00fcr\u00fcnl\u0435r ith\u0430l edip, bunun m\u0430mul\u0435 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi neticesinde ithalat da artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Her\u015feyin ba\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretim. \u00dcretim Sanayi \u0435nd\u0435ksl\u0435rin\u0435 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hem \u0430\u011fust\u043es hem de \u0435yl\u00fcld\u0435 bariz bir \u015fekilde yuk\u0430r\u0131 do\u011fru hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu da hem T\u00fcrkiye \u0435k\u043en\u043emisin\u0435 \u043el\u0430n g\u00fcv\u0435nin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, hem de r\u0435\u0435l s\u0435kt\u00f6r\u00fcn aktif oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin sanayide 6,3 ve in\u015faatta 6,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi kayda de\u011ferdir.\u00a0 Elbette tek ba\u015f\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok \u015fey beklenemez ama art\u0131\u015f dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki % 5,1 gibi bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi hedeflerin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.\u00a0 BU veriler <a href=\"http:\/\/oecd.org\">OECD<\/a> i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131d\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin uygulamaya koydu\u011fu te\u015fvik ve desteklerin etkisi de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bunlar\u0131n ne kadar yerinde oldu\u011fu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda elde edilen y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kendisini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Buna paralel ekonomideki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik olumlu y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u0130\u00e7 talep, kredi geni\u015flemesi ve vergi indirimlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ekonomide beklentilerin iyile\u015fmesi de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi olmu\u015ftur. Ekonomi zaman zaman kamunun tetikleyici etkisine muhta\u00e7 kalabilir. Ancak bunun olumlu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek daha da fazla etki olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar konusu da \u00f6zellikle referandum sonras\u0131 peki\u015fen siyasi ve ekonomik istikrara ek olarak iyile\u015fme g\u00f6sterecektir. Yurt i\u00e7i yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00a0Burada sadece yabanc\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in OHAL uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz etkisinin olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. OHAL s\u00fcreci de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de <strong>\u201cOHAL gibi\u201d<\/strong> uygulanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sadece tehdide odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in halk bunu \u00e7ok rahats\u0131z edici bulmamaktad\u0131r. Ancak bu durumun <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya anlat\u0131labilmesi<\/span><\/strong> \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcmede, 2010-2017 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda %6 rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6lgesel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klar, yurt i\u00e7i \u00e7alkant\u0131lar, g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ile beraber b\u00fcy\u00fcy\u00fcp serpilen risklerdir. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara ra\u011fmen baz\u0131 tablolar var ki milletlerin hayat\u0131nda unutulmazlar aras\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131r:\u00a0\u201cC\u00dcMHUR\u0130YET\u0130 B\u0130Z B\u00d6YLE KAZANDIK&#8221;\u00a0tablosu da bu foto\u011fraflardan birisidir. \u00dclkenin hangi badirelerden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, nelerle m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi, \u00e7ekilenler ve ard\u0131ndan felaha erme d\u00f6nemleri de asl\u0131nda bu [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,533,205,111,1],"tags":[163,534,164,367],"class_list":["post-8622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akademi","category-buyume","category-dis-ticaret","category-ekonomi","category-genel","tag-buyume","tag-cumhuriyet","tag-ihracat","tag-imf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8622"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8635,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8622\/revisions\/8635"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}