{"id":8945,"date":"2018-09-03T22:36:36","date_gmt":"2018-09-03T22:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8945"},"modified":"2018-09-05T10:44:28","modified_gmt":"2018-09-05T10:44:28","slug":"tlye-kurt-kapani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=8945","title":{"rendered":"TL\u2019ye \u00a0Kur(t) \u00a0Kapan\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gezi olaylar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 1 TL\u00a0 54 ABD kuru\u015fu (Cent) (27 May\u0131s 2013),<\/p>\n

Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sonras\u0131\u00a0 \u00a01 TL\u00a0 36 ABD kuru\u015fu (Cent) (24 Kas\u0131m 2015)\u00a0 ve<\/p>\n

15 Temmuz\u00a0 2016 d\u00f6neminde\u00a0 \u00a01 TL\u00a0 34 ABD kuru\u015fu (Cent)\u00a0 \u00a0iken;<\/p>\n

\u015eimdilerde 1 TL\u00a0 18 Cent civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.\u00a0 Bug\u00fcn bu de\u011fer darbe giri\u015fimi d\u00f6neminin\u00a0 de yar\u0131s\u0131na\u00a0 inmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n son 5 y\u0131lda dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 %70\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131r. 10. Bu kayb\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yanad\u0131r. Son 8 ayda TL,\u00a0 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kayb\u0131 ortadad\u0131r.\u00a0 10. Kalk\u0131nma Plan\u0131nda,\u00a0 2014-2018 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirlenen hedefler aras\u0131nda dolar kuru da bulunmaktad\u0131r. Kalk\u0131nma Plan\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131l\u0131 olan 2018 i\u00e7in dolar kuru 1,97 TL olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ancak 2017 ekonomik performans\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 \u00fczerine \u015fu ya\u015fananlar \u00e7ok kolay anlamland\u0131r\u0131lamamaktad\u0131r.\u00a0 Ekonomik olaylara siyasi, hukuki, askeri pek \u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r birden dahil olmu\u015ftur. Bask\u0131n bir \u015fekilde “kur”<\/strong><\/span> marifetiyle piyasalara sal\u0131nan endi\u015fenin ad\u0131\u00a0\u201ckur ata\u011f\u0131\u201d <\/em><\/strong>\u00a0veya \u201ckur(t)<\/em> kapan\u0131\u201d <\/strong>durumudur.<\/p>\n

Bir ekonomi i\u00e7in bunun kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Bunun ad\u0131 ne olursa olsun, sonu\u00e7 ortadad\u0131r. Y\u00f6netilmesi i\u00e7in ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6nlemler ve \u00e7ok boyutlu bir \u00e7aba gerektirmektedir. Bu konuda taraf olan H\u00fck\u00fcmet, \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketicilerin<\/strong> s\u00fcrekli bu s\u00fcre\u00e7le ilgili birbirlerini bilgilendirmesi,<\/strong><\/span> al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemler ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kamuoyu ile payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong><\/span> \u015fartt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Evdeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yavrunuzun ate\u015flendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. Nas\u0131l ki bir anda baban\u0131n o g\u00fcnk\u00fc hal\u0131 saha ma\u00e7\u0131, annenin eve gelecek misafirleri, abla ya da abinin arkada\u015f program\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131yor ve \u00f6ncelik bir anda de\u011fi\u015fiyorsa; ayn\u0131 durum burada da mevcuttur. S\u00fcrekli kontrol, bir tak\u0131m ate\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6nlemler ve en-nihayetinde en yak\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k kurulu\u015funa ba\u015fvurmak\u2026<\/p>\n

En yak\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k kurulu\u015funun ekonomiler i\u00e7in IMF<\/strong> olmas\u0131 elbette \u00e7ok s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fildir. Ancak ekonominin de kendi \u00f6z de\u011ferlendirmesini yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ve alabilece\u011fi baz\u0131 \u00f6nlemler oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de unutmamak gerekir. Arjantin<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0‘in durumu ortadad\u0131r. 50 milyar dolarl\u0131k stand -by anla\u015fmas\u0131 masada durmaktad\u0131r. Faizlerin 1500 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yetmemi\u015ftir.\u00a0Ama hala nazlanan bir d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 kitlesi vard\u0131r \u2026<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’ye d\u00f6nersek, ba\u015fta sorumluluk h\u00fck\u00fcmet<\/strong>tedir. Yetki ve irade ondad\u0131r. Elinde bu sorunla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kabilecek en \u00f6nemli enstr\u00fcmanlara sahip olan odur. \u00d6ncelikle bu konuda i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f kamuoyuna gereken g\u00fcveni vermesi ve kamuoyu ile bu ileti\u015fimi<\/strong><\/span> payla\u015fmas\u0131 gerekmektedir:<\/p>\n

i. Mali disiplini ihmal etmeden koruyucu ve kollay\u0131c\u0131 i\u015flemlerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi,<\/p>\n

ii. Orta Vadeli Plan (OVP)<\/strong><\/span>, siyasi iktidar\u0131n elindeki en \u00f6nemli enstr\u00fcman g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndedir.<\/p>\n

iii. G\u00fcven k\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 af gibi i\u015flemlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, gerekirse bunun Anayasa ile teminat alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131,<\/p>\n

iv. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin dolarla yap\u0131lan i\u015flemleri derhal iptal etmesi,<\/p>\n

v. Yerli ve milli \u00fcr\u00fcn tercihini, kamu ihalelerinde kay\u0131rmas\u0131 ve te\u015fvik etmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131, <\/strong>\u201c\u2026fiyat istikrar\u0131ndan sorumlu\u201d bir kurum olarak, onun da elinde birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler mevcuttur. Bu konunun a\u00e7\u0131k ileti\u015fimle bilgilendirilmesi, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 esast\u0131r. Politika faizinden, banka mevduatlar\u0131na, mevduat g\u00fcvencelerinden kredilere\u00a0 pek \u00e7ok enstr\u00fcman\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

\u00dcretici <\/strong>kesimin de ithal ikameci bir y\u00f6nelim sergilemesi, h\u00fck\u00fcmet te\u015fviklerinin de ithalat\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 bir boyuta odaklanmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. \u00dcretim \u00f6ncelikle ithalata dayal\u0131 i\u00e7 talebi azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik alanlara y\u00f6nelmeli ve sonras\u0131nda ihracat \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi esas tutulmal\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0 H\u00fck\u00fcmetin de ihracat te\u015fvikleri ve d\u00f6viz kazand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 i\u015flemleri \u00f6nceliklendirmesi \u00f6nem kazanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Vatanda\u015f<\/strong>\u0131n da b\u00fct\u00fcn bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te etkisi ve pay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. D\u00f6viz, \u00f6zellikle dolarla ilgili ve ithalata dayal\u0131 tercihlerini \u00f6telemesi, \u201cyerlisi varken\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 ithalat\u0131 tercih etmemesi esast\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Son husus \u201cd\u00f6viz talebidir.\u201d <\/strong>D\u00f6viz de nihayetinde\u00a0 TL ile al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan bir \u201cmald\u0131r.\u201d <\/strong>\u0130htiyac\u0131 olmayan bu fiyattan d\u00f6viz almas\u0131n. Yabanc\u0131lar da zaten bu fiyattan \u00e7\u0131kmayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f de\u011fil pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri beklenebilir. Devlet tahvillerinden hisse senedine ge\u00e7i\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yabanc\u0131lar da\u00a0 3 TL olarak getirdi\u011fi d\u00f6vizi 6 TL’den almas\u0131 ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p gitmesi demek b\u00fct\u00fcn kazand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p gitmesi demektir. Bunun ekonomik bir yan\u0131 yoktur. Ekonomi pani\u011fi sevmez; kurdun puslu havay\u0131 tercih etmesi gibi,\u00a0pani\u011fi f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar<\/strong>\u00a0ister.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7ta 2018 \u00f6demeler y\u0131l\u0131<\/a> idi. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r sadece Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda toplam 20 milyar dolar \u00f6deme yapt\u0131. Bunu yapabildi. Son y\u00fckl\u00fc par\u00e7a 8 milyar dolar ile Ekim \/2018 d\u00f6nemine ait. Bunlara ek olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan kaynaklanan ihtiya\u00e7lar da eklendi\u011finde dolar ihtiyac\u0131 devam edecektir. Ancak 6-7 TL seviyelerindeki bir dolar kuru s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir<\/strong> de de\u011fildir, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de de\u011fil.\u00a0 Dolar\u0131n, b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nem sonras\u0131nda makul d\u00fczeyi olarak, 4,80-5,20 TL uygundur.\u00a0 Ancak bu kur ata\u011f\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 def edilip bu kapandan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f biraz zaman alacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Konunun esas noktas\u0131na gelince… Herkes bu konuda fark\u0131ndal\u0131k<\/strong> <\/span>i\u00e7erisindedir. Ekonomide sonsuz ini\u015f ve s\u00fcrekli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yoktur. Kura ba\u011fl\u0131 her t\u00fcrl\u00fc i\u015flemler ve s\u00fcre\u00e7ler bir kez daha\u00a0 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmelidir. Dolara<\/span> \u00a0ba\u011fl\u0131 ekonomilerin<\/span> <\/strong>eninde sonunda bu t\u00fcr k\u00f6t\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. bu konuda da alternatifler \u00fczerinden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gezi olaylar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 1 TL\u00a0 54 ABD kuru\u015fu (Cent) (27 May\u0131s 2013), Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sonras\u0131\u00a0 \u00a01 TL\u00a0 36 ABD kuru\u015fu (Cent) (24 Kas\u0131m 2015)\u00a0 ve 15 Temmuz\u00a0 2016 d\u00f6neminde\u00a0 \u00a01 TL\u00a0 34 ABD kuru\u015fu (Cent)\u00a0 \u00a0iken; \u015eimdilerde 1 TL\u00a0 18 Cent civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.\u00a0 Bug\u00fcn bu de\u011fer darbe giri\u015fimi d\u00f6neminin\u00a0 de yar\u0131s\u0131na\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[713,108,281,546,205,712,111,543,283,1,166],"tags":[196,722,416,717,718,720,721,719],"class_list":["post-8945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abd","category-akademi","category-basin","category-butce","category-dis-ticaret","category-dolarizasyon","category-ekonomi","category-faiz","category-gazete","category-genel","category-guncel","tag-dolar","tag-doviz-ihtiyaci","tag-kur","tag-kur-atagi","tag-kur-kapani","tag-kurt-kapani","tag-ozel-sirket-borcu","tag-yerli-ve-milli-olani-tercih"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8945"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8950,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8945\/revisions\/8950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}