{"id":9015,"date":"2018-10-21T00:17:53","date_gmt":"2018-10-21T00:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9015"},"modified":"2018-10-21T00:17:53","modified_gmt":"2018-10-21T00:17:53","slug":"bu-doviz-hep-boyle-artar-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9015","title":{"rendered":"Bu D\u00f6viz Hep B\u00f6yle Artar m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bug\u00fcn G\u00fcng\u00f6r URAS<\/a><\/strong> hocam\u0131z\u0131 rahmetle, tekrar yad edelim. O, Ali R\u0131za bey amca ile Ay\u015fe han\u0131m teyzemizin biricik vefal\u0131 evlad\u0131 idi. Bir g\u00f6z\u00fc hep onlarda, anlat\u0131r da anlat\u0131rd\u0131. Bir f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 buldu\u011fumuzda biz de sorard\u0131k hemen: \u201cN\u2019olacak bu dolar\u0131n, d\u00f6vizin hali sevgili hocam?\u201d O da \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerden gelen bu sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 tane tane anlat\u0131rd\u0131, dinlerdik.. \u00f6\u011frenirdik\u2026<\/p>\n

Bir defas\u0131nda \u00e7ok bilinen bir \u00f6rne\u011fi hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Napolyon\u2019un bir kumandan\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131 kaybedince, yaka pa\u00e7a Ba\u015fkomutan\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131l\u0131r. Napolyon, \u201cneden bu sava\u015f\u0131 kaybettin?\u201d diye sorar. O da \u201cbu sava\u015f\u0131 kaybetmenin 10 nedeni\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yler. \u201cPeki\u201d der Napolyon, \u201cNeymi\u015f onlar?\u2026 Kumandan ba\u015flar: \u201cbir, barut bitti\u201d deyince; o zaman Napolyon \u201ctamam\u201d der, \u201cgerisini s\u00f6ylemeye gerek yok\u201d.<\/p>\n

Bizim de sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 b\u00f6yle g\u00f6rmek gerek. \u201cBa\u015fta \u00fclkemize d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi yok. O y\u00fczden sonrakiler \u00f6nemini yitiriyor. Saymaya bile gerek yok. D\u00f6viz geliri, gideri kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor. \u00a0Para yok, pul yok, d\u00f6viz yok\u2026 Ama sorumluluklar\u0131m\u0131z var; bor\u00e7 var!… D\u00f6viz baz\u0131nda, yeterli gelirimiz yok, kendi gelirimiz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131n paras\u0131na puluna muhtac\u0131z. Onlardan gelirken iyi de, gelmeyince t\u0131kan\u0131p kal\u0131yoruz.\u201d\u00a0 Haliyle a\u00e7\u0131k veriliyor. Bunun ad\u0131 \u201ccari a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d<\/strong>: \u00dclkeye giren d\u00f6viz ile \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6vizin aras\u0131ndaki fark\u2026 A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in her ay, duruma g\u00f6re, 4 ila 6 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda d\u00f6viz girmesi gerekiyor. Giri\u015f t\u0131kan\u0131nca, biz de t\u0131kan\u0131yoruz\u2026\u201d nokta.<\/p>\n

Sermaye hareketleriyle gelen d\u00f6viz, para kazanmak i\u00e7in gelir. Ba\u015fka neden gelsin? Faiz y\u00fcksek olacak ki kazanacak. Borsa, \u201cal kazan, sat kazan\u201d <\/strong>diyecek ki gelecek, s\u0131rf bu y\u00fczden \u00fclkeye girmek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat kollayacak. Az zamanda \u00e7ok getiri sa\u011flayan devlet tahvillerine varacak.. ya\u015f\u0131 uygun olanlar hat\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r, 5 Nisan 1994 sonras\u0131 devlet, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k net %50 faizle para toplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O g\u00fcnlerden bu g\u00fcnlere\u2026<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi 4 TL \u2018den T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye giren d\u00f6viz, 6 TL\u2019ler seviyesinden \u00e7\u0131kabilir mi? Kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131, kura kapt\u0131rmay\u0131 bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ister mi? Kulaklar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131nlas\u0131n \u0130lber Ortayl\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye batarsa, deniz ta\u015far\u201d demi\u015fti. Almanya ve Merkel\u2019in ikili diyaloglar\u0131nda bu batma konusunun, telaffuz edildi\u011fi kadar kolay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Merkel olumlu tav\u0131r de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi kurdaki bu belirsizlik, bir y\u00fckselip sonra inen durum, ticaretin ba\u015f d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131d\u0131r. \u00a0Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in dolar\u00a0 5,60\u00a0 TL seviyesinden pozisyon alan bir ihracat\u00e7\u0131, yar\u0131n dolar kuru 5 TL oldu\u011funda, paras\u0131n\u0131 tahsile gitti\u011finde ne olacak?\u00a0 Ya da kur bir ay evveline d\u00f6ner de 6,80 TL olursa; ithalat\u00e7\u0131 sipari\u015fini daha \u00f6nceki kur seviyesinden, 5,60 TL’den verdi\u011findeki durumla yeni durumun fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131las\u0131n?\u00a0\u00a0 Bu kur istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cayarlar\u0131\u201d<\/strong> bozmaktad\u0131r. Son zamanlarda dolar fiyat\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli ini\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131, sermaye sahiplerini beklemeye ald\u0131rd\u0131, d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi yava\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00fclkeye d\u00f6viz getirecek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6ncelikle, \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na, enflasyon oran\u0131na ve faiz getirisine bakar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flad\u0131. Enflasyon ile faiz ba\u015fa ba\u015f. Hatta enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faiz kaybettiriyor. O zaman \u201cfaiz artmal\u0131\u201d<\/strong> diyenler hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 kuru\u015f d\u00f6vizini de enflasyon<\/strong><\/span>a kapt\u0131racak olduktan sonra\u2026<\/p>\n

Ah \u015fu CDS\u2019ler\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bunun ad\u0131 \u201cRisk Primi.\u201d Riskimiz artt\u0131. <\/strong>\u00dclke ekonomileri mercek alt\u0131nda, \u00a0bor\u00e7lanma ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalardan g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi de\u011fil de abart\u0131l\u0131 olarak al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131l\u0131yor. Haberci ku\u015flar: kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketleri. \u00a0Uzun s\u00fcredir T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in yald\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00f6ylem \u00fcretenler gitti. Yerlerine her g\u00fcn farkl\u0131 y\u00fczle gelen ekonomi uzmanlar\u0131 t\u00fcredi. Hele ki \u00a0oldu\u011fundan daha riskli bir ekonomi olarak anlatanlar ise, ba\u015fka bir mesele.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lgedeki politik riskler, d\u0131\u015f politikadaki yaln\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Suriye konusu ve s\u00fcrekli se\u00e7im konu\u015fulmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine, bir de ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00a0eklenince; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan de\u011ferlendirenlerin kafas\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u201cNe papaz\u0131 biter bu \u00fclkenin ne de faili malum cinayetleri\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u201crisk primini\u201d<\/strong> artt\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan de\u011ferlendirenlerin ilk bakt\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6sterge CDS\u2019ler… Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi 156 idi. A\u011fustos\u2019un o en s\u0131cak g\u00fcn\u00fc 580, \u015fimdilerde\u00a0 420\u2019lerdeyiz. (\u0130spanya ve Portekiz dahi 100-150 aras\u0131 risk pirimi \u00f6derken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6dedi\u011fi bu rakamlar \u00e7ok ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksektir.)<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00fczdendir ki bizde dolar fiyat\u0131 (g\u00f6receli olarak) daha fazla art\u0131yor. Daha fazla ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 durumdad\u0131r. Buna bor\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z da eklendi\u011finde, kriz tellallar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 vakte kadar hatta\u00a0 \u201cbug\u00fcn olmazsa yar\u0131n, ama mutlaka bir \u201ckriz\u201d <\/em><\/strong>s\u00f6ylemi hepten dillerine dolanmaya devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bor\u00e7 konusunda \u00f6demek ve \u00f6der gibi yapmak \u015fu anda \u00fclkenin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki durumdur. Borcun bir k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00f6denir, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da yeniden bor\u00e7lan\u0131larak d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcr. K\u0131sacas\u0131 alacakl\u0131lar yeniden bor\u00e7 verirse<\/strong> sorun olmaz. Hep a\u00e7\u0131k veren bir \u00fclke, hep bor\u00e7lu<\/strong> bir \u00fclke pozisyonunda olmak istemez. Bu durum afaki risk primleri demektir; yukar\u0131daki risk primini de tetikleyen bir durum demektir.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdilerde ithalat da dikkat \u00e7ekici<\/strong><\/p>\n

Buna bir de \u00fclkeye giren d\u00f6viz ile \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6viz aras\u0131ndaki fark olan, 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k tutar eklendi\u011finde, bor\u00e7luluk bitmeyecek demektir. \u0130thalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, i\u00e7eride ithalata olan talebin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131, Yerlinin te\u015fviki, ek vergiler hep d\u00f6vizi i\u00e7eride tutmak i\u00e7indir, bu da bir yere kadar.<\/p>\n

Risklerimiz azalmad\u0131k\u00e7a,\u00a0 enflasyonla dinamik ve sonu\u00e7 al\u0131c\u0131 bir m\u00fccadele neticelenmedik\u00e7e, \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedik\u00e7e, buna paralel istihdam artmad\u0131k\u00e7a, dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bug\u00fcn G\u00fcng\u00f6r URAS hocam\u0131z\u0131 rahmetle, tekrar yad edelim. O, Ali R\u0131za bey amca ile Ay\u015fe han\u0131m teyzemizin biricik vefal\u0131 evlad\u0131 idi. Bir g\u00f6z\u00fc hep onlarda, anlat\u0131r da anlat\u0131rd\u0131. Bir f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 buldu\u011fumuzda biz de sorard\u0131k hemen: \u201cN\u2019olacak bu dolar\u0131n, d\u00f6vizin hali sevgili hocam?\u201d O da \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerden gelen bu sorunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 tane tane anlat\u0131rd\u0131, dinlerdik.. \u00f6\u011frenirdik\u2026 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9016,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[108,498,205,712,111,479,543,283,1,478,711],"tags":[723,196,190,164,173,671,416,741,194,740],"class_list":["post-9015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-akademi","category-almanya-dis-politika","category-dis-ticaret","category-dolarizasyon","category-ekonomi","category-enflasyon","category-faiz","category-gazete","category-genel","category-issizlik","category-kriz","tag-cds","tag-dolar","tag-enflasyon","tag-ihracat","tag-issizlik","tag-ithalat","tag-kur","tag-risk-pirimi","tag-uretim","tag-yerli-mali"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9015"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9015\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9017,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9015\/revisions\/9017"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}