{"id":9051,"date":"2018-11-03T22:18:37","date_gmt":"2018-11-03T22:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9051"},"modified":"2018-11-04T08:09:51","modified_gmt":"2018-11-04T08:09:51","slug":"cumhurbaskanligi-hukumet-sisteminin-ilk-butcesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9051","title":{"rendered":"Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fbmet Sisteminin \u0130lk B\u00fct\u00e7esi"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00c7anta<\/span><\/strong>larda b\u00fct\u00e7enin Parlamentolara sunulmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden 160 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. \u0130lk \u00e7antan\u0131n W. Gladstone i\u00e7in haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenir. T\u00fcrkiye’de ise Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet sisteminin ilk b\u00fct\u00e7esi 16 Ekimde TBMM’ye sunuldu. 2019 Y\u0131l\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7esi<\/a> ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sisteminin ilk b\u00fct\u00e7esi olarak haz\u0131rland\u0131. Anayasa ve TBMM \u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcz\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemelerden sonra b\u00fct\u00e7enin hukuki eksiklikleri de giderilmi\u015f oldu.\u00a0 Yine mali y\u0131ldan 75 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce meclise sunulan b\u00fct\u00e7e \u201cekonomik t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u201d<\/strong> a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n en yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu g\u00fcnlerin\u00a0\u00a0 \u201cg\u00f6lgesi alt\u0131nda<\/strong>\u201d \u00a0meclise geldi. Gerek OVP (Orta Vadeli Program) yerine a\u00e7\u0131klanan YEP (Yeni Ekonomik Program),<\/a> gerekse Enflasyonla M\u00fccadele Program\u0131, yeni b\u00fct\u00e7eden daha fazla ilgi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Daha \u00f6nceden al\u0131\u015fageldi\u011fimiz b\u00fct\u00e7eler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir b\u00fct\u00e7e ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k. Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve \u00fcretimin hedeflendi\u011fi, sosyal programlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m b\u00fct\u00e7esinden ziyade \u201celi s\u0131k\u0131\u201d<\/strong> bir b\u00fct\u00e7e teklifi g\u00fcndemde idi. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcnyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek yeni yap\u0131lanma, tasarruflar, enflasyon ve kur ataklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201craporlama ve izleme\u201d <\/strong>s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00f6rmekteyiz.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelik Maliye Politikas\u0131nda<\/strong><\/p>\n

2019 B\u00fct\u00e7esinin harcama yan\u0131 961 milyar TL olarak b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00f6nerisinde yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Gelirler 880,4 milyar TL olarak teklif edilmi\u015ftir. \u00a0Bu haliyle 2019 b\u00fct\u00e7esinde\u00a0 80,6 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bunun GSMH’ye oran\u0131\u00a0 %2,6\u2019d\u0131r.\u00a0 Son on y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z.. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esinde bu oran\u0131n %1,9\u2019da kalmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Yine 2018\u2019e g\u00f6re k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fct\u00e7e teklifinde yer alan 66 milyar TL olarak hedeflenen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 fazlas\u0131, 2019 i\u00e7in teklif edilmi\u015f bulunmaktad\u0131r. Ekonomik dalgalanmalar nedeniyle bu oran y\u00fckselmekle beraber Maastricht Kriterleri ile \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen referans de\u011ferleri a\u015fmam\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bilindi\u011fi gibi AB Maastricht d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm kriterlerinde \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en fazla\u00a0 %3 olmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin oran\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, \u015fimdilik ekonominin kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bilindi\u011fi gibi \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek (%131,8)’<\/em>tir. Bunu azaltmak i\u00e7in, daha \u00f6nceden sunulan istikrar program\u0131nda, 2019\u00a0 b\u00fct\u00e7esinde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %0,8 olarak belirtmi\u015fti. Ancak h\u00fck\u00fcmet, daha fazla harcama planlay\u0131p,\u00a0 bu a\u00e7\u0131k seviyesini %1,6’ya y\u00fckseltince AB Komisyonu b\u00fct\u00e7e teklifini reddetmi\u015fti<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

K\u0131saca \u0130talyanlar, i\u015fsizlik<\/b><\/a> fonu kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak istemi\u015fti ki i\u015fsizlere daha fazla kaynak ay\u0131rabilsin. Muhta\u00e7l\u0131k ayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek istemi\u015fti.\u00a0\u00a0Emeklilik<\/b><\/a> ya\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tekrar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek istemi\u015fti; b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada emeklilik ya\u015f\u0131 ciddi mesele olmaya devam ediyor. Banka ma\u011fdurlar\u0131 var, kriz onlar\u0131 fena \u00e7arpm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Onlara y\u00f6nelik yard\u0131mlar\u0131 artt\u0131mak, vergi<\/b><\/a> aff\u0131 ve sabit vergi oran\u0131 ile vergi y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek istemi\u015fti de… de i\u015fte.\u00a0 Haliyle bunun sonu\u00a0b\u00fct\u00e7e<\/b><\/a> a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermeye \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131. Ama yanl\u0131\u015f hesap bu defa AB Komisyonu’ndan d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0 Buras\u0131 size de “tan\u0131d\u0131k”<\/strong> geldi mi?<\/p>\n

SGK A\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve EYT<\/strong><\/p>\n

2019 B\u00fct\u00e7esinde, Hazinenin\u00a0 SGK\u2019ye yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu transferler b\u00fct\u00e7edeki\u00a0\u201ckara delik\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini korumaktad\u0131r. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan fazla bir miktar SGK a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131na gitmektedir. TBMM\u2019de tart\u0131\u015fmalara neden olan emeklilikte ya\u015fa tak\u0131lanlar konusu bu konu ile birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde,\u00a0 konunun pop\u00fclist politikalara kurban edilemeyecek kadar \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. 500 bin ya\u015fa tak\u0131lan ve 100 bin kadar g\u00fcn eksi\u011fi bulunan toplam 600 bin yeni Emekli kitle bu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n daha da i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz hale gelmesi sonucunu do\u011furacakt\u0131r. EYT s\u00fcrecinin bu \u015fekilde sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n sebebi tamamen \u201cekonomiktir<\/strong>\u201d. Sosyal G\u00fcvenlik a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan fazlad\u0131r, haliyle bu sorunun bu \u015fekliyle y\u00f6netilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, EYT gibi yeni bir y\u00fck daha almas\u0131 zaten m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. 16 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn 500 milyar dolarla ifade edildi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde bu teklifin riskli bulunmas\u0131 normaldir.<\/p>\n

Sosyal G\u00fcvenlik sisteminde bir de\u00a0akt\u00fceryal denge<\/strong>\u00a0denen bir oran vard\u0131r ki as\u0131l\u00a0hesaplar<\/strong>\u00a0bunun \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu denge, emekli say\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan aras\u0131ndaki oran\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a, emeklilik sistemindeki fonlar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 ve emeklilerin hem maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fece\u011fi hem de sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetlerinden daha iyi yararlanaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131r.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye’de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\/emekli dengesi yani akt\u00fceryal denge\u00a0 1,6<\/span><\/strong>‘d\u0131r. Her 1 Emekli i\u00e7in, 1,6 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan demektir. Bu oran hakikaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.\u00a0 AB uygulamas\u0131 standard\u0131 da g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan referans al\u0131nabilir: 4 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fana 1 emeklidir.\u00a0 Almanya’da bu oran 6’d\u0131r. \u0130deal bir sosyal g\u00fcvenlik d\u00fczeni i\u00e7in d\u00f6rt \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan veri olarak al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye’de emekli say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak yang\u0131na k\u00f6r\u00fckle gitmek demektir. Bu y\u00fczden\u00a0emekli maa\u015flar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr; bu y\u00fczden sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetlerinden yararlanma s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emekli maa\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeni emeklileri de idare edebilece\u011fini savunanlar, emeklinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirini konu\u015fmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Mesela\u00a0 Almanya’da en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emekli maa\u015f\u0131 1350 Euro, Fransa ve \u0130spanya’da yakla\u015f\u0131k 1050, \u0130talya ve Yunanistan’da ise 900 Euro kadard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye’deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maa\u015flar\u0131n sebebini, yetersiz bulunan sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetlerinin sebebini yukar\u0131da bahsi ge\u00e7en dengenin \u201cdengesizli\u011finde\u201d<\/strong> de aramak gerekir. Her gelir yetersizli\u011fi finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 demektir, bor\u00e7<\/strong><\/span> demektir, y\u00fck<\/span><\/strong> demektir sonu y\u00fcksek faiz<\/span><\/strong>e \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Faizler ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar <\/strong><\/p>\n

Son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 50-60 milyar TL olarak devam eden b\u00fct\u00e7edeki faiz y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn,\u00a0 2019 i\u00e7\u00fcn 117 milyar TL olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131, faizin katland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7edeki en bariz g\u00f6stergesidir. \u00a0Faizler devam ettik\u00e7e ekonomideki verimlilik ve istikrar<\/strong> gerileyecektir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar k\u0131sm\u0131nda ise iyile\u015fme son be\u015f y\u0131la kadar artarak devam etmi\u015ftir. Son be\u015f y\u0131l ise yat\u0131r\u0131mlar faizlerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir seyir izlemi\u015ftir. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 dahil yat\u0131r\u0131mlar faizleri a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak 2019, 2020 ve 2021 programlar\u0131nda faiz, \u00f6nce yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n iki kat\u0131na ve son y\u0131l 2021\u2019de, \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Ekonomide b\u00fct\u00fcn dengesizlikleri ba\u015flatan bu faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrecinin, yeniden \u00fcretim a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ve ekonomide dengeleri yerine \u00e7eken bir hale geri d\u00f6nmesi sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Faizlerin, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmesi, \u00fclkenin \u00fcretken ekonomiye ge\u00e7mesi ve geli\u015fmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. \u015eimdilerde ise artan faiz oranlar\u0131<\/strong>\u00a0,b\u00fct\u00e7edeki faiz y\u00fck\u00fc ve faiz harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131nda etkilidir. Son y\u0131llarda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar lehine devam eden olumlu s\u00fcre\u00e7, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n dalgalanmalar\u0131 ile faiz lehine bozulmu\u015f ve faizler yat\u0131r\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131<\/strong>\u00a0yeniden ba\u015fkald\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u00f6ng\u00fc tersine d\u00f6nmedik\u00e7e\u00a0 ekonomiden istenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n elde edilmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00c7antalarda b\u00fct\u00e7enin Parlamentolara sunulmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden 160 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. \u0130lk \u00e7antan\u0131n W. Gladstone i\u00e7in haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenir. T\u00fcrkiye’de ise Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet sisteminin ilk b\u00fct\u00e7esi 16 Ekimde TBMM’ye sunuldu. 2019 Y\u0131l\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7esi ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sisteminin ilk b\u00fct\u00e7esi olarak haz\u0131rland\u0131. Anayasa ve TBMM \u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcz\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemelerden sonra b\u00fct\u00e7enin hukuki eksiklikleri de giderilmi\u015f oldu.\u00a0 Yine mali y\u0131ldan 75 g\u00fcn […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[660,108,546,533,111,543,283,1,749,742],"tags":[752,750,480,471,753,754,751,756,757,755],"class_list":["post-9051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ab","category-akademi","category-butce","category-buyume","category-ekonomi","category-faiz","category-gazete","category-genel","category-italya-butcesi","category-yatirim","tag-2019-butcesi","tag-baskanlik-sistemi-butcesi","tag-butce-acigi","tag-cumhurbaskanligi-hukumet-sistemi","tag-cumhurbaskanligi-hukumet-sisteminde-butce","tag-faizler","tag-ilk-butce","tag-italya-butcesi","tag-maastricht-kriterleri","tag-yatirimlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9051"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9060,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9051\/revisions\/9060"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}