{"id":9681,"date":"2019-03-25T12:33:10","date_gmt":"2019-03-25T12:33:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9681"},"modified":"2019-03-25T12:40:03","modified_gmt":"2019-03-25T12:40:03","slug":"buyumenin-zorluklari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9681","title":{"rendered":"B\u00dcY\u00dcMEN\u0130N ZORLUKLARI"},"content":{"rendered":"

Carl Von Clausewitz, Sava\u015f \u00dczerine<\/strong>\u00a0 kitab\u0131n\u0131n yazar\u0131. Kitab\u0131n bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6remese de 190 y\u0131ld\u0131r hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan kitaplardan. Kitap, \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra e\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan bast\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131: 10 b\u00f6l\u00fcm ve 700 k\u00fcsur sayfa. Kitab\u0131n en en me\u015fhur s\u00f6zlerinden birisi \u015f\u00fcphesiz, \u201cSava\u015f politikac\u0131lara, istenen \u015feylerin \u015fiddet yoluyla<\/span><\/strong> kabul ettirilmesidir” \u00a0<\/em>ifadesidir. Demek ki \u015fiddet olmadan da kabul ettirilecek olanlar var; ya da bu bir tehdit: \u201cKabul etmezsen, bedelini \u00f6dersin!\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u00f6netimler de ba\u015fta ekonomi \u00fczerinden uyar\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ekonominin esen sert r\u00fczgarlardan etkilenme sebebi, hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 olabilir. \u00d6nemli olan bu sert esen r\u00fczgarlar\u0131 g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcsleyebilmektir, d\u0131\u015f etkilere zaman\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale edebilmektir.<\/p>\n

Her bir devlet d\u00fczenli, d\u00fczensiz b\u00f6ylesi y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 etki olu\u015fturacak tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131;
\nbili\u015fsel, <\/em><\/strong>
\ndiplomatik, <\/em><\/strong>
\nekonomik ve<\/em><\/strong>
\nasker\u00ee<\/em><\/strong>
\nmilli g\u00fc\u00e7 unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rda tutmak zorundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi konunun ekonomi k\u0131sm\u0131ndan devam edelim\u2026 2018 son \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 da geldi sonunda. 3 ay r\u00f6tarla da olsa veriler \u00f6nemlidir. Ge\u00e7 gelmesi ekonomideki karar vericiler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00e7ok da sevimli de\u011fil. Neticede \u201cd\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fcne\u015fi ile bug\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ama\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kurutulmuyor.\u201d <\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Ekonominin g\u00f6stergeleri g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde dahi hareketli ve de\u011fi\u015fken iken \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra ilan edilen rakamlar\u0131n da etkisi ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olmuyor.<\/p>\n

Dolardaki kur ata\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Haziran \u2013 A\u011fustos d\u00f6neminden itibaren, bunun sonunun ekonomide bir darbo\u011faz oldu\u011fu konusunda, c\u00fcmle alem hemfikirdi. Beklentiler, kurun zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131n da i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in bile bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Aynen \u201cfren mesafesinde\u201d oldu\u011fu gibi \u00f6nceki h\u0131zlar, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin atlat\u0131lmas\u0131nda etkili oldu.<\/p>\n

Son \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme -3<\/strong> olarak duyuruldu. Beklenen bir durum. \u00a0Ancak ekonominin son \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00f6nemin \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemine dikkat \u00e7ekmek gerek.\u00a0 B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ilk \u00e7eyrek %7, ikinci \u00e7eyrek %5 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerin olumlu gidi\u015fat\u0131 etkili idi. Bu daralman\u0131n da birden toparlanmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olur. Ancak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmede daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc olmaz, b\u00fcy\u00fcme 1 civar\u0131nda olu\u015fabilir. Sonu\u00e7ta Mart sonuna kadar devam eden \u00d6TV \u2013 KDV indirimleri bu d\u00f6nemi kurtaracakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u201cMart\u2019\u0131n sonu Bahar.\u201d <\/strong><\/span>Se\u00e7im bitecek ve ekonomi kendi mecras\u0131na \u00e7ekilecek. \u00d6yle olunca mevsimdeki yumu\u015fama, ekonominin se\u00e7imi atlatmas\u0131, sebze meyvenin bolla\u015fmas\u0131, hasat mevsimi, turizm sezonu derken ekonomi toparlanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ile ge\u00e7en senenin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 milli geliri de a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131: 9,632 dolar\u2026 T\u00dc\u0130K a\u00e7\u0131klama ve hesaplar\u0131nda tutarl\u0131 bir kurum. Bir konunun neden ve nas\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilme uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kendilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0 Zaten burada ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken temel sorun, 50-100 dolar fazla veya eksik ya da 1-2.000 dolar fazla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 de\u011fil; Temel mesele, 12 y\u0131ld\u0131r \u201cOrta gelir grubu\u201d<\/strong> olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan 12.000 dolar seviyesini a\u015famam\u0131\u015f olmam\u0131zdad\u0131r. 12 y\u0131ld\u0131r yerinde sayan bir milli gelir seviyesi..<\/p>\n

Milli gelir ilk olarak 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki seneye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 22 artarak 9,656 dolara bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tam da \u201corta gelir\u201din s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na geldik – geliyoruz derken, bu defa k\u00fcresel kriz nedeniyle 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9 bin dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sonraki y\u0131llar ise \u00a0milli gelir hep 10 bin dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Son 12 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 10,800 dolard\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Elbette ba\u015fka g\u00f6stergeleri de ihmal etmemek gerek. Her \u015feyi bir kenara b\u0131rakal\u0131m, 12 senedir ayn\u0131 zamanda bizim gibi gen\u00e7 ve kalabal\u0131k n\u00fcfusu olan ve her sene i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da yo\u011fun bir n\u00fcfusa sahibiz. \u00a02012\u2019den beri \u00f6zellikle Suriye\u2019den gelen m\u00fcltecilerin de\u00a0 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu. Kay\u0131td\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yeniden y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc fiziki altyap\u0131s\u0131 da \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc olmayan bir ekonominin \u00e7ok daha iyi bir performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenirdi.<\/p>\n

Her ne sebepten olursa olsun,\u00a0 Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck trilyon dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayanm\u0131\u015f bulunmaktad\u0131r. Cumhuriyetin ilk y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki 10 milyonluk n\u00fcfus da bug\u00fcn, 85 milyondur. Halk\u0131n kent ve k\u0131rsal hayat\u0131 da d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmden pay\u0131n\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu konuda \u00fclkeyi, 100 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin kurumsal yap\u0131s\u0131, kanunlar\u0131 ve y\u00f6ntemleri ile y\u00f6netmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Her \u015feyin yeni ba\u015ftan ele al\u0131n\u0131p de\u011ferlendirilmesi esast\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yine de yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemek gerekmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus i\u00e7in yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar gerekmektedir. Merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esinde yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, <\/strong>son d\u00f6viz kuru sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra artan faizlerle yeniden en a\u011f\u0131r darbelerinden birini alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve faizlerin 60 milyar TL civar\u0131nda dengelenmi\u015f hali yeniden faizler lehine bozulmu\u015ftur. 2019 b\u00fct\u00e7esinde yat\u0131r\u0131mlar 54 milyarda kal\u0131rken faiz giderleri 117 milyar TL ile\u00a0 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n iki kat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n bu \u015fekilde geri kalmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin gelece\u011fi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan tehdittir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u0130lk olarak 2014’te faiz ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ayn\u0131 seviyede idi. Ne kadar faiz, o kadar yat\u0131r\u0131m b\u00fct\u00e7esi.\u00a0 2015-16-17 hatta 2018’de bile yat\u0131r\u0131mlar faizden<\/strong> fazla idi:\u00a0Mavi \u00e7izgiler..<\/strong>.<\/span>
\n50 milyar kadar faiz bir o kadar yat\u0131r\u0131m. 2018 kur sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 faizler y\u00fckselince, Devletin bor\u00e7 faizi y\u00fck\u00fc \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ti. Kur ata\u011f\u0131n\u0131 devlet faizle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verince 2019 i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n iki kat\u0131 faiz<\/strong> hesapland\u0131. Kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla devlete faiz yoluyla 64 milyar, neredeyse bir y\u0131ll\u0131k YATIRIMLARA E\u015e<\/strong> y\u00fck geldi<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 son 12 senedir milli gelirin % 28-30 \u2019una ancak ula\u015fabilmi\u015ftir. Benzer \u00fclkelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2007-2017 aras\u0131nda bu oran\u0131n Hindistan\u2019da y\u00fczde 36,5, Endonezya\u2019da y\u00fczde 32,2 ve Kore\u2019de 30,7\u2019dir. Kore\u2019de nisbeten daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de yat\u0131r\u0131m konusunu tamamlayan bir \u00fclkedir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir altyap\u0131 olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00a02007-17 aras\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 % 28,5\u2019tir. \u00a0A\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r ki yollar, k\u00f6pr\u00fcler, limanlar\u2026 vs denilse de \u00a0onlara bile yeteri kadar yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lam\u0131yor. Hala daha \u201cimalat de\u011fil in\u015faat\u201d<\/strong><\/span> olu\u015fu devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n

Orta gelir tuza\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fman\u0131n temel \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda hem nitelik, hem de nicelik olarak bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakalanmas\u0131 ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r. Bunun da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeler ile kendini g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carl Von Clausewitz, Sava\u015f \u00dczerine\u00a0 kitab\u0131n\u0131n yazar\u0131. Kitab\u0131n bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6remese de 190 y\u0131ld\u0131r hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan kitaplardan. Kitap, \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra e\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan bast\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131: 10 b\u00f6l\u00fcm ve 700 k\u00fcsur sayfa. Kitab\u0131n en en me\u015fhur s\u00f6zlerinden birisi \u015f\u00fcphesiz, \u201cSava\u015f politikac\u0131lara, istenen \u015feylerin \u015fiddet yoluyla kabul ettirilmesidir” \u00a0ifadesidir. Demek ki \u015fiddet olmadan da kabul ettirilecek olanlar var; […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[744,546,746,533,476,543,1,166,747],"tags":[163,196,845,849,225,847,848,455,416,846,705,850,436,119],"class_list":["post-9681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2019-butcesi","category-butce","category-butce-aciklari","category-buyume","category-dis-politika","category-faiz","category-genel","category-guncel","category-yatirimlar","tag-buyume","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomik-refah","tag-ekonomik-saldiri","tag-faiz","tag-imalat","tag-insaaat-vs-imalat","tag-insaat","tag-kur","tag-milli-gelir","tag-siyaset","tag-strateji","tag-yatirim","tag-yonetim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9681"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9687,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9681\/revisions\/9687"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}