{"id":9976,"date":"2019-05-28T05:58:14","date_gmt":"2019-05-28T05:58:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9976"},"modified":"2019-05-28T06:03:37","modified_gmt":"2019-05-28T06:03:37","slug":"cin-abd-golge-oyunu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/?p=9976","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in \u2013 ABD G\u00f6lge Oyunu"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n twitter diplomasisi devam ediyor. Gecenin bir vakti att\u0131\u011f\u0131 twitler ile \u201c\u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 yeniden kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d Bizim tarihimizde bolca anlat\u0131lan, her y\u00f6neticinin kendisinden sonra gelene b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 me\u015fhur \u201c\u00fc\u00e7 zarf\u201d hikayesindeki ilk zarf gibi ba\u015flad\u0131 Trump: \u201cKendinden \u00f6ncekileri k\u00f6t\u00fcle!\u201d Yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalar\u0131 bozmalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda, NAFTA ve \u0130ran anla\u015fmalar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7me g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin arkas\u0131nda \u201cyanl\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015flar!\u201d<\/strong> su\u00e7lamas\u0131 var. Elbette \u201cAmerika’y\u0131 yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fck yapma\u201d vaadi de var.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in de \u00f6ncelikleri \u201cMade in China 2025\u201d hedeflerinde yer almaktad\u0131r. Bir sonraki ad\u0131mlar daha da dikkat \u00e7ekici: 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar \u00c7in’in yapay zek\u00e2da (AI) d\u00fcnya lideri olma iste\u011fi ve 5G teknolojisinde egemenlik olu\u015fturmak. Bu sayede 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel olarak d\u00fcnya milli gelirinin %15\u2019ine ula\u015facak bir alanda \u00f6nc\u00fc olmak.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n, 200 milyar dolar de\u011ferindeki \u00c7in \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine uygulanan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin ikiye katlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmas\u0131 ise \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in ile d\u0131\u015f ticaretindeki, \u00c7in lehine durumun ABD\u2019ye verdi\u011fi zarar sebebiyledir. ABD, tek tarafl\u0131 olarak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 koruma pe\u015findedir. Alttaki tablodan da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi \u00c7in, ABD\u2019yi kendine iyi m\u00fc\u015fteri haline getirmi\u015f; satm\u0131\u015f ama almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u2026. \u00d6zellikle 1985 sonras\u0131 dikkate \u015fayand\u0131r. Fark h\u0131zla a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn \u201cneler oluyor\u201ddan \u00f6nce, \u201cnereden nereye?\u201d sorusuna cevap arar gibi sorulmal\u0131. \u00c7in nas\u0131l oldu da kendisine ticari ambargolar konulacak hale geldi? \u00c7in, \u00fcretimini b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ABD\u2019ye ihra\u00e7 \u00a0eden bir\u00a0 \u00fclke. ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 itiraz\u0131, 2018\u2019de toplam d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2\/3\u2019\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 verilmi\u015f olmas\u0131ndand\u0131r. Bu durum ABD i\u00e7in \u00e7ok s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayacak bir durum.\u00a0 Bu y\u00fczden 200 milyar dolarl\u0131k mal i\u00e7in %10 olan vergileri %25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

Gerilimden endi\u015feli se\u00e7menlerine de \u201csizin i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum\u201d mesaj\u0131 vermektedir. \u201c\u00c7in art\u0131k bizi soyamayacak; bizi kaz\u0131klayamayacak\u201d<\/em> gibi d\u0131\u015f politikada al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u00f6ylemler ise gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in ise 65 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine ek vergi koydu. \u00c7in\u2019in de sadece ABD ile d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 kadar cari fazlas\u0131 var. ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019den sonra, en yak\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi\u011fi iki \u00fclke Meksika ve Almanya: her birinden 70 milyar geride. ABD i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131k nas\u0131l istenmeyen bir durum ise sebep olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ayn\u0131 durumda. Hele \u00c7in\u2019in bilin\u00e7li olarak kendi paras\u0131n\u0131 (Yuan) de\u011fersiz tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015fka bir gerek\u00e7esini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fi di\u011fer bir \u00f6nemli g\u00f6sterge. B\u00fcy\u00fck firmalar\u0131n ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00fcretkenli\u011fi sebebiyle \u00c7in\u2019e olan ilgisi eskiden beri devam etmektedir. Son zamanlarda bu kervana b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kat\u0131lan Tesla\u2019ya da dikkat \u00e7ekmek gerekir.<\/p>\n

NATO toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Almanya\u2019y\u0131 hedef almas\u0131, Rusya\u2019ya enerji y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu \u00fclkenin \u00a0g\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcne girmekle su\u00e7lamas\u0131 da ba\u015fka bir gerilim kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7ta Fransa, Almanya\u2019ya destek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca ABD i\u00e7in cephe geni\u015flemi\u015f oldu. Ve Fransa uzun s\u00fcredir \u201cSar\u0131 Yelekliler\u201d ile u\u011fra\u015fmak zorunda b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hikaye asl\u0131nda 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na kadar \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7ekti\u011fi 500 milyar dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n etkileri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flay\u0131nca ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0 Herkes memnundu, ba\u015fta ABD de memnundu. \u00c7in ekonomisi ihracat ile \u00a0d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131nca, ABD\u2019li t\u00fcketiciler giderek daha \u00e7ok miktarda \u00c7in mallar\u0131na ilgi g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bir yandan ABD\u2019ye \u00c7in mallar\u0131 girerken \u00f6te yandan ABD \u015firketleri \u00c7in\u2019de ortakl\u0131klar kurmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. \u00c7in ufak ufak de\u011fil ciddi ciddi geliyordu.<\/p>\n

Ucuz i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerde ciddi etkili oldu. Sonunda elde edilen gelir \u00c7in\u2019in cari fazla yoluyla dolar hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n kabarmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00c7in bu dolarlar\u0131 ABD devlet tahvillerine yat\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in cari fazlas\u0131\u00a0 ABD i\u00e7in kolay ve ucuz finansmana d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00c7in kendi paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmaya devam etti. Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019den temin etti\u011fi kaynaklar sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131rd\u0131. Haliyle ABD kendi gelirinin \u00fczerinde ithalat yapar oldu. Nihayetinde \u00a0\u00c7in\u2019in ABD ile olan d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 GSY\u0130H\u2019nin\u00a0 %3\u2019\u00fc gibi anormal y\u00fcksek seviyeye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret politikas\u0131 ucuz Yuan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015f\u00e7ilik \u00fczerine kurgulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ancak ihmal edilmemesi gereken husus \u201cfikri m\u00fclkiyet h\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131<\/strong>\u201dd\u0131r. Bir de \u00f6zellikle ABD \u015firketlerinin \u00c7in\u2019de u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarife d\u0131\u015f\u0131 engeller de ABD taraf\u0131n\u0131n ayran\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla kabarmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Trump, 2018 Mart\u2019\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin t\u00fcm \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum ithalat\u0131na g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi getirmi\u015fti. Haziran ay\u0131 itibariyle ilk defa \u00c7in\u2019i do\u011frudan hedefleyerek bu \u00fclkeden ithal edilen 34 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00fcr\u00fcne %25 G\u00fcmr\u00fck Vergisi getirmesi sular\u0131n \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu defa Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131 itibariyle son darbeye de \u015fahit olduk. ABD \u00a0200 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in mallar\u0131 \u00fczerine A\u011fustos sonu itibariyle %10 G\u00fcmr\u00fck Vergisi getirecek. Bu durum ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019den yap\u0131lan ithalat\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131na vergi koymas\u0131 demektir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ktisat der ki \u201cTicaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sonu yok<\/strong>,\u201d kaybeden \u00fclke olur, d\u00fcnya olur. E\u011fer her \u00fclke ticaret sava\u015f\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131rsa, uzmanlar\u0131n hesab\u0131na g\u00f6re, 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ticaret engellenir. \u00a0Paul Krugman, y\u00fcksek G\u00fcmr\u00fck Vergilerinin ticareti yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya etkileyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. Vergilerden ba\u015flay\u0131p, mallar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kabarmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an \u00e7ok neden var. Azalan ticaret \u00fcretimin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 demektir. Azalan \u00fcretim istihdam\u0131 olumsuz etkiler\u2026 Haliyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m, artan i\u015fsizlik, azalan talep d\u00fcnya ekonomisini cidddi manada yava\u015flatacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00fclkelerin milli paralar\u0131 zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda de\u011fer kaybetti. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin para birimleri de gerileme e\u011filiminde. \u00dcst\u00fcne \u0130ran da gelince ekonomi yeniden siyaset g\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcne girmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Bu sadece bir sonu\u00e7 olarak kalmay\u0131p, T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkeleri derinden etkileyecektir. Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye’nin yeni pazarlar<\/strong> bulmas\u0131, dolar\u0131 kullanmayan yeni d\u0131\u015f ticaret bi\u00e7imleri geli\u015ftirmesi, hatta dolardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ticaret imkanlar\u0131 aranmas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticarette milli paralar<\/strong> kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131 \u00f6nem kazanmaktad\u0131r. Bu anlamda \u00f6zellikle MENA b\u00f6lgesi<\/strong> \u00f6nemini artt\u0131rmaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n

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ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n twitter diplomasisi devam ediyor. Gecenin bir vakti att\u0131\u011f\u0131 twitler ile \u201c\u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 yeniden kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d Bizim tarihimizde bolca anlat\u0131lan, her y\u00f6neticinin kendisinden sonra gelene b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 me\u015fhur \u201c\u00fc\u00e7 zarf\u201d hikayesindeki ilk zarf gibi ba\u015flad\u0131 Trump: \u201cKendinden \u00f6ncekileri k\u00f6t\u00fcle!\u201d Yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalar\u0131 bozmalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda, NAFTA ve \u0130ran anla\u015fmalar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7me g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin arkas\u0131nda \u201cyanl\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015flar!\u201d su\u00e7lamas\u0131 var. Elbette \u201cAmerika’y\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[713,281,779,205,1,166,780],"tags":[887,552,891,888,889,886,400,885,890],"class_list":["post-9976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abd","category-basin","category-cin","category-dis-ticaret","category-genel","category-guncel","category-ticaret-savasi","tag-abd-ek-vergi","tag-cin","tag-dolar-hakimiyeti","tag-fikri-mulkiyet-hirsizligi","tag-mena","tag-ticaret-savasi","tag-trump","tag-twitter-diplomasi","tag-yeni-pazarlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9976"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9976\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9979,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9976\/revisions\/9979"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acarhoca.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}